# Steve Deace: Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. He also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.

**Claimed:** Nov 4, 2022
**Pundit:** Steve Deace — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/steve-deace
**Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC5197633640.mp3?updated=1667586752

9 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 9 have settled, averaging 26.2 out of 100, against 81.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Ron DeSantis will break the record for the largest margin of victory by a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida state history.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Steve's final senate crystal ball has Republicans gaining six seats for a 56 to 44 advantage.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess
- **Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Steve in Iowa says, Tuesday upset. Grassley loses in Iowa... He's not losing. Okay?**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Ron DeSantis will break the record for the largest margin of victory by a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida state history. The current record is Jeb Bush's 13 win in 2002. And I think Ron DeSantis is gonna beat that record.**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: scored 36 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **I mean, Kim Reynolds is going to Yes. Whatever the margin you think DeSantis is going to hit, hers is, I think, going... I mean, I could see that like sixty forty**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Well well, basically, I took the ninety four election, which was, I believe, 54 seats. And and they and they picked up 14 of those already and then just added 40 to get to to 54. That's essentially what I what I predicted.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=steve-deace