# Nick Wright: Nick trusts Josh Allen over the Broncos defense, picks the Bills to win outright in Denver (Bills +1.5 as their lock), picks the Patriots to beat the Texans by more than three, likes the 49ers to keep it close but not win, and predicts the Rams blow out the Bears roughly 42-28 with Stafford throwing about five TDs.

**Claimed:** Jan 17, 2026
**Pundit:** Nick Wright — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nick-wright
**Outlet:** First Things First (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/first-things-first-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/traffic.megaphone.fm/FOXM6942909073.mp3?updated=1768609491

5 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 1 player season number, 1 score prediction and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 34.8 out of 100, against 59.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I think Josh Allen's about to dog walk them.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Seattle Seahawks to beat Niners**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Seattle Seahawks
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Jan 17, 2026): Seahawks by 6.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 72%. Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Matthew Stafford to record 5 passing tds**
  - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Buffalo Bills to beat Broncos**
  - Kind: Game Outcome Picks · About: Buffalo Bills
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Jan 17, 2026): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%. Graded on who won, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- **Los Angeles Rams 42 — Bears 28**
  - Kind: Score Predictions · About: Los Angeles Rams
  - Verdict: scored 73.81 out of 100, against 47.69 for a naive guess
  - Line: Closing line (Jan 18, 2026): Rams by 3.5, total 49.5 · this 42–28 calls a bigger Rams win (by 14) and more points (70). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread. Source: nflverse; context only, never part of the grade.
- “who do I trust, you know, in the fourth quarter of a playoff game... my list would be Patrick one, Stafford two, Allen three.”
  - Kind: Top Player Lists
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Seattle Seahawks — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/seahawks
- Matthew Stafford — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/matthew-stafford
- Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams
- Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills

## What others said about the same people

- Pete Prisco on Buffalo Bills: Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/baf85732-a389-4d56-8efe-5ce1e77fb8ae (scored 76.19)
- John Breech on Buffalo Bills: Breech picked the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night by a score of 24-17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4d22cd22-c9e2-4e03-ac32-129a116a34d0 (scored 76.19)
- Jordan Dajani on Buffalo Bills: Dajani picked the Bills to edge the Vikings 24-23. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/28009098-d828-4465-9c7f-f92dac661f0a (scored 61.9)
- Jared Dubin on Buffalo Bills: Dubin picked Buffalo to win a low-scoring Monday night game in Minnesota, 20-14. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4535f610-1df1-45e9-a603-fae7ef72893f (scored 73.81)
- Tyler Sullivan on Buffalo Bills: Sullivan picked the Bills to beat the Vikings 24-17. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/bd29eda0-d993-4b00-af09-edb0051a4f4b (scored 76.19)
- Jeremy Brener on Drew Lock: Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7eb2d245-63d0-4be0-80ba-3f60197e2b16 (scored 100)

## More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Monson on New York Giants: Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f4cb7a1e-1380-4f08-b39b-1432b97db846 (scored 0)
- Eva Geitheim on Washington Commanders: Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c011abef-0b18-41ad-acad-6a67dfbd41fd (scored 100)
- Conor Orr on New York Giants: Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ba669379-043c-448a-a167-2f2e3695a52e (scored 0)
- Albert Breer on New York Giants: Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fdc16abc-9ae2-4bf4-a327-8e9d9ae283b6 (scored 0)
- Mitch Goldich on New York Giants: Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/706c628f-bb25-4892-b33e-84c81bfb6e4a (scored 0)
- Matt Verderame on New York Giants: Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dfeb0994-1abf-414f-b153-d01b6e4e5365 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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