# Mike Murphy: Murphy argues the national environment overwhelms individual campaigns and calls a string of races for Republicans: Fetterman falling short in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker taking the Georgia Senate seat, Adam Laxalt winning Nevada, Kari Lake winning the Arizona governorship, and Brian Kemp holding the Georgia governorship. **Claimed:** Nov 2, 2022 **Pundit:** Mike Murphy — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-murphy **Outlet:** Hacks On Tap — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/hacks-on-tap **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/257/traffic.megaphone.fm/VMP7328182892.mp3 5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 5 have settled, averaging 20 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls. > You put a gun to my head, I predict that Herschel Walker's gonna win that seat. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I'm I'm calling it for lack salt simply because I'm old.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I do think Carrie Lake is gonna win, and so now we got a lady Trump** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Pennsylvania is the Democratic party's insurance policy ... So maybe he can pull it off, but but I'm I'm betting they're not gonna collect on that policy now.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **you put a gun to my head, I predict that Herschel Walker's gonna win that seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think Kemp's gonna win, but I think that race is gonna be...** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=mike-murphy