# Brent Buchanan: Buchanan said the race is close but gives Trump an edge nationally, predicting Trump wins Arizona, North Carolina and most likely Georgia, that Harris has a slight edge in Pennsylvania, and that Michigan looks like the state Trump can take to finish it. **Claimed:** Oct 23, 2024 **Pundit:** Brent Buchanan — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/brent-buchanan **Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV3559955677.mp3?updated=1763205932 6 checkable claims — 6 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 6 have settled, averaging 83.3 out of 100, against 16.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > he's going to win Arizona. He's going to win North Carolina. It's highly likely he wins Georgia. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **He's going to win North Carolina.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **he's going to win Arizona** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **It's really close, and I would give Donald Trump an edge.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **It's highly likely he wins Georgia.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **And right now, I would say she has a slight edge in Pennsylvania.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **And if you're looking at where can Trump pull out that final state, right now, it looks like Michigan.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=brent-buchanan