# Amy Walter: Walter said Trump would carry Montana by roughly twice their Ohio margin, with Ohio likely going to Trump by about 10 points, and they stood behind Cook's ratings of Montana's Senate race as Lean Republican and Nebraska's as Likely Republican. **Claimed:** Oct 20, 2024 **Pundit:** Amy Walter — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/amy-walter **Outlet:** Pod Save America — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/pod-save-america **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://clrtpod.com/m/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/284/dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8848735.mp3?modified=1769550047&sid=5166624&source=rss 4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 4 have settled, averaging 97 out of 100, against 67.1 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Trump is gonna win the state of Montana by probably twice as much as he will win Ohio. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I think you guys have Fisher as a lean Republican. Or is that right? Yeah. I think, we have an unlikely Likely. Right?” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “the Cook Political Report moving Jon Tester from a toss-up race to a lean Republican race. ... And I assume you agree with that that assessment about what changes this It it it is.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Trump is gonna win the state of Montana by probably twice as much as he will win Ohio.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “how well Sherrod Brown has been holding on in a state that Trump's probably gonna carry by 10 points” - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 87.9 out of 100, against 68.2 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=amy-walter