# Claudia Grisales: Discussing North Carolina's Senate race, they suggested that because Republican voters tend to break late, Ted Budd would likely show a sizable advantage by Election Day over Democrat Cheri Beasley.

**Claimed:** Oct 26, 2022
**Pundit:** Claudia Grisales — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/claudia-grisales
**Outlet:** The NPR Politics Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-npr-politics-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://prfx.byspotify.com/e/play.podtrac.com/npr-510310/npr.simplecastaudio.com/81c2d960-75d6-4dba-9f07-0bfade0db7ce/episodes/55452e1b-9025-4b34-9b9e-8829d534b29a/audio/128/default.mp3?awCollectionId=81c2d960-75d6-4dba-9f07-0bfade0db7ce&awEpisodeId=55452e1b-9025-4b34-9b9e-8829d534b29a&d=896&e=1131627834&p=510310&size=14397485&t=podcast

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> So we could see that, like you said, Tam, this big advantage on... Come election day for Bud.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- “that is a theme I heard that Republicans can break late. So we could see that, like you said, Tam, this big advantage on... Come election day for Bud.”
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100)
- Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0)
- Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0)
- Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=claudia-grisales