# Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race.

**Claimed:** Nov 3, 2026
**Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson
**Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/s15-ep198-hour-1-election-day-republicans-e85

3 checkable claims — 2 control of congress and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> a GOP that loses the House but keeps the Senate

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- “predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- “Midterm predictions: Rick Jackson over Keisha Lance Bottoms in the Georgia governor race”
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- “predicts Republicans lose the House but hold the Senate”
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 100)
- Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 0)
- Isaac Saul: Saul says Democrats have the House sewn up heading into election night, and that Democrats have good odds of winning the Senate races in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f27d4f5b-e1cc-44b3-8f0b-b9fbd7c422cb (scored 100)
- Isaac Saul: Saul asserts that Democrats have the House sewn up, and says Democrats appear to be running away with the statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire while having good odds in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3424d5ea-fb93-4738-8b03-bd5dd4f4d5b7 (scored 100)
- G. Elliott Morris: Morris's final forecast calls for Democrats to win the House and, less certainly, the Senate, with their model giving them roughly an 8-in-10 chance of majorities in both chambers. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/771aa4a4-9236-4c99-b174-170e7c229342 (scored 100)
- G. Elliott Morris: Morris's final pre-election expectation is a large Democratic wave that flips the House and, less certainly, the Senate from Republican to Democratic control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6a222477-8346-46c4-a22e-f74070c92422 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson