# Nathan Gonzales: Gonzales rated Virginia's 2nd District as tilt Republican, put the overall House outcome in a range from a nine-seat Democratic gain to a six-seat Republican gain, and said a Republican-controlled Senate is the most certain of 2024's outcomes, with the presidency and House much closer.

**Claimed:** Oct 25, 2024
**Pundit:** Nathan Gonzales — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathan-gonzales
**Outlet:** The Inside Elections Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://podcasts.captivate.fm/media/be96164d-0f96-4585-bdcb-39ee172c4a0a/ie034.mp3

3 checkable claims — 1 chamber control, 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Our overall range right now is anything from a Democratic gain of nine seats to a Republican gain of six seats.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **We have it as tilt Republican, and and we're all gonna be watching those Virginia districts**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Ranking how certain we are about outcomes in the twenty twenty four elections, a Republican controlled senate, I think is the most... It's not a guarantee, but it's it's the most certain**
  - Kind: Chamber Control
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Our overall range right now is anything from a Democratic gain of nine seats to a Republican gain of six seats.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More chamber control

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 0)
- Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100)
- David Pakman: Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45530dc9-dd97-4b13-ba4a-53e34dcf9e3f (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=nathan-gonzales