# Rich Hribar: In his red-zone regression study, Hribar argues Jaxson Dart is undervalued this offseason and that his stock rises sharply if his red-zone passing efficiency merely reaches league baseline; he is also bullish on Justin Herbert improving in 2026 and on Tyler Shough having big upside if the Saints generate more red-zone trips.

**Pundit:** Rich Hribar — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rich-hribar
**Outlet:** Sharp Football Analysis — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sharp-football-analysis
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/nfl-red-zone-stats-expectations-quarterbacks/

> Even if Dart can get to baseline levels of passing efficiency near the end zone, his stock goes way up.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims


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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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