# Rising (The Hill): The co-host presented an electoral map predicting a Harris landslide, including Harris carrying Texas and Florida, arguing polls are badly wrong and Trump's coalition has shrunk since 2016 and 2020.

**Claimed:** Nov 5, 2024
**Pundit:** Rising (The Hill) — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/rising-the-hill
**Outlet:** Rising (The Hill) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/rising-the-hill
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://traffic.megaphone.fm/HLIHH7603358850.mp3?updated=1730830303

3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I've been predicting a landslide for at least three weeks now.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **But you have her winning Texas and Florida? Yeah. Puerto Rican vote.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **I've been predicting a landslide for at least three weeks now.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **But you have her winning Texas and Florida? Yeah. Puerto Rican vote.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0)
- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=rising-the-hill