# Kyle Kondik: The Crystal Ball shifted eleven House races and two governor's races toward Democrats amid a bad polling month for Republicans, newly making VA-2 and PA-7 Leans Democratic, downgrading several Trump-won GOP seats, and keeping Republicans favored but less secure in the Vermont and Nebraska governorships. Its overall tallies show 213 House seats at least Leans Democratic and a Senate balanced on a knife's edge, with Democratic odds in Alaska and Ohio now slightly better than even. **Claimed:** Sep 29, 2026 **Pundit:** Kyle Kondik — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kyle-kondik **Outlet:** Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sabato-s-crystal-ball-uva-center-for-politics **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/will-republicans-wake-up-as-september 23 checkable claims — 19 race winners and 4 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > For us, Senate control is positioned right on the edge of the butter knife. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **we are making Rep. Derek Tran (D, CA-45), who won his seat in one of 2024's closest contests, a clearer favorite** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **SENATE : 48 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 5 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **we are also moving 4 other districts that backed Trump in 2024 from Likely Republican down to Leans Republican. In Kentucky's Lexington-centered 6th District...** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **NC-3 and OH-15 both move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **While Gov. Jim Pillen (R) remains favored over former state Sen. Lynne Walz (D) in polls... We are moving the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **While we still call them Toss-ups, Democratic odds in Alaska and Ohio are probably now a little north of 50-50.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Not surprisingly, the poll found Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) as a prohibitive favorite for reelection** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **We are moving VA-5 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **We are moving PA-7 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **we rate the most marginal of those, VA-7, as Likely Democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **we are also moving 4 other districts that backed Trump in 2024 from Likely Republican down to Leans Republican... Rep. Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) was also hurt to some extent** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Although we'd be shocked if he lost, we are making Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) a less secure favorite... We are moving the race down to Likely Republican** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D, MO-5) was the major beneficiary of the high court's intervention by being restored to a Safe Democratic seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **the Crystal Ball moved Michigan's Senate race from Toss-up into the Leans Democratic category, where it joined New Hampshire** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **NC-3 and OH-15 both move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **In July, we moved Maine's open 2nd District from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Today, we are reversing that change** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **SENATE : 48 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 5 Toss-ups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **we are also moving 4 other districts that backed Trump in 2024 from Likely Republican down to Leans Republican... Finally, an independent poll of Montana's 1st District** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **we are moving VA-2 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, as we ultimately think Kiggans will have a hard time fighting against the wave against former Rep. Elaine Luria (D)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **moved Michigan's Senate race from Toss-up into the Leans Democratic category, where it joined New Hampshire** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **While we still call them Toss-ups, Democratic odds in Alaska and Ohio are probably now a little north of 50-50.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=kyle-kondik