# Lakshya Jain: Presenting Split Ticket's model update, they rate Harris a slight favorite for the presidency, gives Republicans a strong chance of taking the Senate with a 51-48 seat edge in their favored column, and makes Democrats modest favorites to retake the House with 215 seats favored to Republicans' 208. They also call individual races: Moreno favored in Ohio, Republicans likely to flip Montana, Scott and Cruz favored in Florida and Texas, Gallego favored over Lake in Arizona, Rosen Likely Democratic in Nevada, Theriault a slight favorite over Golden in Maine's 2nd, and NY-04 Leans Democratic. **Claimed:** Sep 27, 2024 **Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2024/09/27/temperature-check-house-senate-and-presidency-9-27/ 15 checkable claims — 9 race winners, 4 seat counts and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 15 have settled, averaging 72 out of 100, against 48 for a naive guess at the same calls. > In the Senate, Republicans remain favorites, with the model giving them a 79% chance of retaking the chamber. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “with our model actually finding him a slight underdog against state senator Austin Theriault” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Our model gives Rick Scott and Ted Cruz 73% and 71% chances of winning reelection, respectively.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Ohio’s Senate race is a tossup but our model considers Republican Bernie Moreno a favorite to win in November.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Democrats remain slight favorites in the House, with a 61% chance to retake the chamber” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Our model already placed his district at Leans Democratic, giving him just a 26% chance of retaining his seat.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Our model shows Democrats favored in 215 seats, while Republicans are favored in 208 seats; 12 seats are tossups.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - “Currently, Republicans are favored in 51 seats to the Democrats’ 48.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - “In the Senate, Republicans remain favorites, with the model giving them a 79% chance of retaking the chamber.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Out west, Democrat Ruben Gallego has a 77% chance of defeating Republican Kari Lake” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Currently, Republicans are favored in 51 seats to the Democrats’ 48.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - “in Nevada, Senator Jacky Rosen has retained a significant polling lead despite the close presidential matchup, and her race sits at Likely Democratic” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “Kamala Harris remains a very slight favorite over Donald Trump for the presidency, with our latest model update giving her a 57% chance of winning the presidency” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Our model shows Democrats favored in 215 seats, while Republicans are favored in 208 seats; 12 seats are tossups.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - “Our model now gives Republicans an 83% chance of flipping the seat” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Our model gives Rick Scott and Ted Cruz 73% and 71% chances of winning reelection, respectively.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain