# Nathan Gonzales: Gonzales said Republicans are favored to win the Senate majority, with Inside Elections' likely projection a GOP net gain of two to four seats, and moved Texas to tilt Republican while keeping Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tilt Democratic. He also laid out the House projection range and the firm's Iowa and Virginia ratings. **Claimed:** Nov 1, 2024 **Pundit:** Nathan Gonzales — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/nathan-gonzales **Outlet:** The Inside Elections Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://podcasts.captivate.fm/media/294cb60b-8c61-4728-aee8-e9e77f2853cb/ie035-2.mp3 9 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. 8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 87.5 out of 100, against 65 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Our likely projection is any... Is a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Our likely projection is any... Is a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess - **our outlook in the senate is pretty favorable to Republicans. They need a net gain of two seats to reclaim the majority, and we have them favored.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **you guys just shifted Virginia seven to tilt democratic** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **as well as the Pennsylvania senate race between Democrat Bob Casey junior and Republican Dave McCormack. We'd left those in our tilt Democratic category.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **We've left the Wisconsin senate race between Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde... in our tilt Democratic category.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **moving Texas from lean Republican to tilt Republican, which is just one step away from toss-up** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I forget which one you guys have, Virginia seven... Virginia two right now. Tilt republican.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **you moved the Zach Nunn race... from toss-up to tilt republican... Now Nunn... he has repaired that image.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **we see the most likely outcome is anywhere from a Democratic net gain of nine seats to a Republican net gain of a single seat** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=nathan-gonzales