# Mike Fanelli: Fanelli names six players as overpriced busts to avoid at their NFFC redraft ADPs: Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, TreVeyon Henderson, Keaton Mitchell, Justin Jefferson and Dalton Kincaid. They also expect Omarion Hampton to be the Chargers' featured back.

**Claimed:** Aug 15, 2026
**Pundit:** Mike Fanelli — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mike-fanelli
**Outlet:** FantasyPros — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fantasypros
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.fantasypros.com/2026/08/6-overvalued-fantasy-football-draft-picks-to-avoid-nffc-2026-picks/

6 checkable claims — 5 fantasy bust calls and 1 depth chart call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.

> Let's look at six players who are overpriced draft picks based on NFFC ADP for redraft leagues.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Trevor Lawrence to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 89.11 | QB8)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Trevor Lawrence
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Justin Jefferson to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 11.94 | WR6)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Omarion Hampton to be 1st on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Keaton Mitchell to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 135.16 | RB43)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Keaton Mitchell, Los Angeles Chargers
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Caleb Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 83.09 | QB5)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Dalton Kincaid to fall short of his draft cost (ADP 118.51 | TE10)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Trevor Lawrence — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/trevor-lawrence
- Justin Jefferson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/justin-jefferson
- Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings
- Omarion Hampton — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/omarion-hampton
- Los Angeles Chargers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chargers
- Keaton Mitchell — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/keaton-mitchell
- Caleb Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-williams
- Chicago Bears — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bears
- Dalton Kincaid — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dalton-kincaid
- Buffalo Bills — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bills

## What others said about the same people

- Nate Gosney on Daiyan Henley: After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/60272861-4ad0-4749-b36a-dcdf09b9213f (scored 0)
- Jason Harmon on Max Brosmer: Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fa393501-3f38-481e-8e75-48125587e911 (scored 0)
- Logan Lazarczyk on Kirk Cousins: Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d0fd408a-7dcd-4e50-ac62-6b4510a8a800 (scored 100)
- Logan Lazarczyk on Kirk Cousins: Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fda03952-2ea6-4919-8114-0ebb127478d1 (scored 100)
- Charean Williams on Odell Beckham Jr.: Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d4fd8cfb-3c75-4209-9e1a-d60e821f315b (scored 0)
- John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0)

## More fantasy bust calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put their rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at their cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Zay Flowers: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 0)
- Chris Welsh on Austin Ekeler: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Joe Pisapia on Rashee Rice: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Breece Hall: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Chuba Hubbard: Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as their ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9cc5c06e-e0c5-45bd-8b93-fa089f8673a8 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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