# Harrison Lavelle: In Split Ticket's penultimate House temperature check, Lavelle expects Republicans to win a House majority, projecting a final Republican total in the 230-240 seat range, with current ratings showing Republicans at 223 seats to Democrats' 195. He picks seven tossups — Republicans in CA-27, NY-19, NY-22, OH-13 and OR-05, Democrats in KS-03 and NH-01 — favors Republicans in NM-02, and keeps a set of late-breaking seats (CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, WA-08) plus NY-25, CA-26, PA-12, CO-07 and IL-06 in the Democratic column. **Claimed:** Oct 31, 2022 **Pundit:** Harrison Lavelle — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/harrison-lavelle **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/10/31/house-temperature-check-one-week-out/ 24 checkable claims — 20 race winners, 3 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 24 have settled, averaging 86 out of 100, against 77.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > There are a few important caveats that distinguish this aggregate from our predictions, which will likely place final number of Republican House seats in the 230 to 240 seat range. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **supports the expectation that the GOP should amass a respectable House majority next week** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **This race reminds us of those in California's 26th and Pennsylvania's 12th, similarly-blue seats which moved to LIKELY D last week... We believe fundamentals will keep these seats in Democratic hands** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **KS-03 LEANS D ... the data on the importance of social issues post-Dobbs do indeed push us to pick Davids.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **NH-01 LEANS D ... we feel that the fundamentals of the 1st district favor Pappas... Democrats are pulling away enough to make a close victory the most likely scenario.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **our predictions, which will likely place final number of Republican House seats in the 230 to 240 seat range** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 60 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In the 19th, a Biden +4.4 seat, Marc Molinaro seems like the frontrunner against Democrat Josh Riley... we expect undecided voters to make the difference for the Republicans here just like in the 22nd.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **California's 26th and Pennsylvania's 12th, similarly-blue seats which moved to LIKELY D last week... We believe fundamentals will keep these seats in Democratic hands** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **lead Democrats 223 to 195 after this update; 17 races remain to be picked** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 10 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **NY-19 and NY-22 LEANS R ... we are comfortable naming Republicans slight favorites** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Republicans hit the 218 seat mark in our ratings weeks ago, and lead Democrats 223 to 195 after this update; 17 races remain to be picked.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 95 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **CA-27 LEANS R ... Split Ticket believes that a Republican-leaning national environment could give Garcia the boost he needs to win next week.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Our single SAFE to LIKELY D shift comes in New York's 25th... national Republicans have offered some late help to La'Ron Singletary in his bid against incumbent Democrat Joe Morelle... We believe fundamentals will keep these seats in Democratic hands** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **That's partly why we favor Republicans in New Mexico's 2nd** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Two districts are moving from LIKELY to LEANS D , meaning Democrats are still favored to win in each... These are Colorado's 7th and Illinois's 6th** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is arguably a slight favorite in her Tossup gubernatorial race** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Two districts are moving from LIKELY to LEANS D , meaning Democrats are still favored to win in each... These are Colorado's 7th and Illinois's 6th** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Seats that exemplify this category include CA-49, CT-05, OR-06, NV-01, VA-07, and WA-08... we still favor Democrats in each seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **OR-05 LEANS R ... it's hard for us to see Jamie McLeod-Skinner reliably besting Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **OH-13 LEANS R ... Republicans seem well-poised to win one of the Buckeye State's three Tossup races... we believe fundamentals do indeed benefit Republicans.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=harrison-lavelle