# Josh Kraushaar: Kraushaar forecast a likely red wave: a Republican gain of about 20 House seats and a two-seat Senate gain leaving Republicans at 52. He also called Christine Drazan the favorite in Oregon's governor race and said Kari Lake was favored to win Arizona's governorship.

**Claimed:** Nov 3, 2022
**Pundit:** Josh Kraushaar — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/josh-kraushaar
**Outlet:** Honestly with Bari Weiss — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/honestly-with-bari-weiss
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/mgln.ai/track/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/chrt.fm/track/384D27/pscrb.fm/rss/p/tracking.swap.fm/track/VOdNgcECFk0maZgOJbmx/traffic.megaphone.fm/RSV1786065447.mp3?updated=1682613571

5 checkable claims — 3 seat counts and 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 63 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52. That would be my my prediction.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess
- **It it is. And I I think it's fair to call her the favorite, at at this point.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **I think 20 seats in the house is is pretty easy to expect. It could be higher, but 20 is a good round number, and I think Republicans are well within reach of that.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 45 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess
- **I'll give Republicans two seats. They'll get the 52.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess
- **I I think she's favored to win, if you look at the polls, but she's only up by a a few points.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 45)
- Glenn Beck: Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f9c85b52-0829-4303-9e70-7fd00e9a17fc (scored 20)
- Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 0)
- Jim Geraghty: Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with his final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4bdd2c52-9d51-432d-8366-c693d886726e (scored 35)
- Ben Shapiro: On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. He also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1c0cbfad-0103-4466-b426-ad65b638d7f0 (scored 20)
- Steve Deace: On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. He also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if his margin were squeezed. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65d9dec6-348b-4e7c-921c-f9ddd93ae844 (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=josh-kraushaar