# Derek Brown: Brown says Ty Simpson is the clear bust of this quarterback/prospect group while defending Fernando Mendoza as a clean evaluation, and they treat Carnell Tate as a long-established top-ten talent who could even go inside the top five. **Claimed:** Apr 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/derek-brown **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/sharp-or-square/nfl-draft-betting-update-more-prop-bets-picks-predictions 2 checkable claims — 1 draft bust call and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think if we're talking about bus players, get you know, Ty Simpson all day, I think that's that's the clear bust to me. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Carnell Tate to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to disappoint at the next level** - Kind: Draft Bust Calls · About: Ty Simpson - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson ## What others said about the same people - Lance Zierlein on Carnell Tate: Zuerlein describes their mock draft 3.0: Carnell Tate to the Giants at No. 5, Sonny Styles falling to the Cowboys at No. 12, and Colton Hood to Dallas at No. 20. They also expect runs on linebackers from the late twenties to about pick 45, defensive tackles from the early-mid twenties into the 40s, and says Ahvion Terrell's 4.65 forty knocks them out of first-round contention. They call Kenyon Saddiq and Mansoor Delaine the safest picks for Dallas, and thinks Delaine's tape is top-four caliber, while Jeremiah Smith could be a generational, Megatron-type receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3f8e6478-8ee7-441e-b2d1-d0a10233c34a (scored 95.76) - Jaime Eisner on Ty Simpson: A seven-round Jets mock draft projecting New York to take Ohio State's Arvell Reese at No. 2 and Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson at No. 16, followed by Ty Simpson, Brandon Cisse, Jalon Kilgore, Tyreak Sapp, Kaelon Black, Fernando Carmona and Trebor Pena. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ab0fb4f4-96ef-49b5-95af-ce16ddebe50c (scored 42.04) - Danny Parkins on Carnell Tate: Danny Parkins presented their one-and-only 2026 mock draft, including trades: Mendoza at 1 to the Raiders, David Bailey second to the Jets, the Cowboys trading up to No. 3 for Arvell Reese, the Bears trading up to 16 for Kadyn Proctor, and Ty Simpson going to Arizona at 32 at the end of round one. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d98bca2f-5fc3-4f68-8389-30f9a2cb906f (scored 87.81) - Nick Wright on Carnell Tate: Nick Wright unveiled their full 32-pick 2026 NFL mock draft 4.0, starting with Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 and ending with Avion Terrell to the Seahawks at 32. They also called Carnell Tate the best/safest receiver in the class, projected Ty Simpson inside the top 45, said Mendoza profiles as a low-end top-15 NFL quarterback, and expected the Dolphins to lose 15 games. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c5ad8a4-034f-4abb-8806-20dd9e44b5c6 (scored 91.7) - David Harrison on Ty Simpson: Harrison delivers their only first-round mock draft for the 2026 NFL Draft, projecting all 32 first-round picks (including several trades) plus the rest of Washington's projected class, while noting it is an exercise in what could happen rather than a firm forecast. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5cc44fc1-4ff9-447a-9c32-5f715fa6e9ba (scored 43.91) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Daniel Jeremiah's final 2026 NFL mock draft, projecting the first round pick by pick (including mock trades), starting with Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1 and ending with Peter Woods to the Ravens via a trade with Seattle. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0fbc7597-86ee-4037-a1e6-4b062ff9f12c (scored 77.11) ## More draft bust calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. They are pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying they'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. They also see Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0) - John Middlekauff on Anthony Richardson: Middlekoff's bold predictions, as relayed on the show, have the Patriots and Colts making the playoffs; they also argue the Colts whiffed on Anthony Richardson, comparing them to Trey Lance. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eaacd99d-867e-4bab-9c40-015de85caa35 (scored 100) - Carter Bahns on Ashton Jeanty: Bahns predicts Ashton Jeanty's role in Las Vegas will continue to shrink, with Mike Washington Jr. functioning as a co-starter/early-down back while Jeanty becomes a receiving-game specialist rather than the every-down featured back they were drafted to be. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ebc5009a-aaec-483a-8b72-b2005466bf45 (not settled) - Jason Fitz on Cam Ward: Fitz predicted Joe Burrow will win NFL MVP, argued Cam Ward is on track to be remembered as the worst No. 1 overall bust since JaMarcus Russell, said the Titans could very likely land the No. 1 pick again, expects Jacksonville to blow out the Colts, sees Indiana's Charlie Becker as a high first-round pick, and believes Lamar Jackson stays in Baltimore long-term. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b0053c55-e7b4-4cd5-b7ff-0f4f75a6eeda (not settled) - Carter Bahns on Anthony Richardson: Reviewing the moves that led to Chris Ballard's firing, Bahns judges Anthony Richardson, taken No. 4 overall in 2023, a bust who has failed to justify their first-round draft slot. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/489587cb-b95b-436f-afe7-1eb547833faf (not settled) - John Shipley on Jack Kiser: Shipley declares linebacker Jack Kiser, taken 107th overall in the fourth round of the 2025 draft, the Jaguars' first draft bust of the new Coen/Gladstone/Boselli regime after Cincinnati claimed them on waivers. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/87f2f656-5cde-4e4c-b30f-fffd5e5d1778 (not settled) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=derek-brown