# Derek Brown: Brown says Ty Simpson is the clear bust of this quarterback/prospect group while defending Fernando Mendoza as a clean evaluation, and he treats Carnell Tate as a long-established top-ten talent who could even go inside the top five. **Claimed:** Apr 8, 2026 **Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/derek-brown **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/sharp-or-square/nfl-draft-betting-update-more-prop-bets-picks-predictions 2 checkable claims — 1 draft bust call and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record. 1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think if we're talking about bus players, get you know, Ty Simpson all day, I think that's that's the clear bust to me. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Carnell Tate to be picked “top ten pick” (picks 1–10)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Ty Simpson to disappoint at the next level** - Kind: Draft Bust Calls · About: Ty Simpson - Verdict: not settled yet ## Who this take is about - Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate - Ty Simpson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ty-simpson ## What others said about the same people - Blaine Grisak on Ty Simpson: After the Rams' first preseason game, Grisak predicted the full 53-man roster, naming three quarterbacks, four running backs, five receivers, five tight ends, nine offensive linemen, four linebackers, six defensive linemen, four edge rushers, five cornerbacks, five safeties and three special teamers, with Dean Connors headed for the practice squad instead. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/893ce849-9f8b-40c4-b5bc-a578611b14f8 (scored 100) - Dharya Sharma on Carnell Tate: Previewing the Titans' preseason opener, Sharma identifies five receivers as roster locks, expects Bryce Oliver to make the 53 on special teams value, and predicts Will Levis will not be on Tennessee's roster by September, likely being moved for a late-round pick. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60a6ef5-4d69-4548-ad17-906bf8bfb384 (scored 100) - Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7) - Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52) - Rich Eisen on Ty Simpson: Eisen argues that if Ty Simpson does go in the first round, it will be in the bottom third of the round. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/db6287b9-704b-4590-8347-0e1b1d2ab2f9 (scored 100) - Bucky Brooks on Ty Simpson: Brooks argued Ty Simpson's value matches the bottom of the first round or the second round, not a top-six pick, and graded receiver Germie Bernard as a middle-of-the-second-round prospect. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f2f580b4-4413-425c-836f-fcc792b4e32f (scored 100) ## More draft bust calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - John Middlekauff on Caleb Williams: Middlekauff expects either Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to win this year's MVP, calling them the two best players in the league. He is pessimistic on the Bears, forecasting six or seven wins and saying he'd bet Caleb Williams doesn't work out as a franchise quarterback. He also sees Oklahoma's John Mattier as a first-round pick who'll be in the Heisman mix. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/deaaf3f6-e53e-4080-a0ca-d5f872b54c6a (scored 0) - John Middlekauff on Anthony Richardson: Middlekoff's bold predictions, as relayed on the show, have the Patriots and Colts making the playoffs; he also argues the Colts whiffed on Anthony Richardson, comparing him to Trey Lance. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/eaacd99d-867e-4bab-9c40-015de85caa35 (scored 100) - Carter Bahns on J.J. McCarthy: Bahns argues McCarthy's Minnesota tenure was a bust and that he is unlikely to ever live up to his No. 10 overall draft billing, predicting the Giants' low-cost gamble won't pay off and that he may not even beat out Jameis Winston for the starting job. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/02341f40-99de-4692-85a8-db11b66f4966 (not settled) - John Green on T.J. Sanders: Green expects the Bills to place second-year defensive lineman T.J. Sanders on injured reserve while Phidarian Mathis returns from suspension to the active roster, and argues Sanders is already trending toward bust status relative to his No. 41 overall selection. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/26609082-1dfb-4294-854d-59dfee0c58aa (not settled) - Blaine Grisak on Quentin Johnston: Grisak argues the Rams still need a third wide receiver and lists five trade candidates they should explore, while judging both Quentin Johnston and Xavier Legette as first-round receivers who have not lived up to their draft billing. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f4d09ab-2993-420f-8113-7269099da319 (not settled) - Carter Bahns on Marvin Harrison Jr.: Bahns argues that Marvin Harrison Jr., the No. 4 overall pick in 2024, is failing to live up to his draft slot and is headed toward being a first-round bust before he reaches free agency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/321a2ff7-249b-4785-9f6b-d7de4783e42d (not settled) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=derek-brown