# Mark Morales-Smith: Morales-Smith names four running backs as 2026 fantasy busts to avoid: Christian McCaffrey (injury risk, declining efficiency at a top-three ADP), Josh Jacobs (declining yardage as a fringe RB1), Kyren Williams (capped ceiling from a Blake Corum timeshare), and Breece Hall (stuck in a weak Jets offense with competition for touches).

**Claimed:** Aug 5, 2026
**Pundit:** Mark Morales-Smith — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-morales-smith
**Outlet:** Sports Illustrated — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/sports-illustrated
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://www.si.com/onsi/fantasy/nfl/fantasy-football-running-back-busts-to-avoid-breece-hall-is-risky-but-three-higher-ranked-rbs-are-riskier

2 checkable claims — 2 fantasy bust calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

> With the looming injury risk and declining efficiency, we can't buy into McCaffrey at his ADP.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Josh Jacobs to fall short of his draft cost (a fringe RB1)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Christian McCaffrey to fall short of his draft cost (being drafted as a top three fantasy running back)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Josh Jacobs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/josh-jacobs
- Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/packers
- Christian McCaffrey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/christian-mccaffrey
- San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/49ers

## What others said about the same people

- Parker Hurley on Khalid Kareem: Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a729417-69ee-493a-9bec-d905fd1a7082 (scored 0)
- Bill Huber on Green Bay Packers: Huber argues Green Bay has no excuses left and will beat New England in Foxborough, and expects Christian Watson to play despite their rib injury. They also sketch the projected interior offensive line, with John Williams at center and Laken Tomlinson at right guard. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5ab5fa3a-4526-46a4-b11b-a2bc99820cb8 (scored 100)
- Pete Prisco on Green Bay Packers: Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dc43909b-bc7f-47aa-b208-5cf7c95844bc (scored 64.29)
- Derek Brown on Green Bay Packers: Brown picked the Bengals to beat the Falcons in Madrid, the Packers to win outright in New England and the Bills to beat the Vikings on Monday night. They were bullish on Jonah Coleman's rest-of-season value, expected Jonathan Taylor to play for the Colts, floated a Breece Hall trade, and did not expect DJ Reed to play in Week 9. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4014405-6764-427e-9708-679baf6b06de (scored 100)
- Danny Parkins on Green Bay Packers: Parkins named the seven AFC teams they believe are already set as the playoff field, expects Chicago, Buffalo and Kansas City to win this week, took Green Bay over New England and Atlanta over Cincinnati outright, and kept Bills–Bears as their Super Bowl matchup with the Giants still winning the NFC East. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/272d1f8a-06f7-4b8b-8480-94d370ae5e6f (scored 100)
- AJ Hawk on San Francisco 49ers: Hawk said the Chiefs would beat the Jets, the Seahawks would beat the Cardinals, and the 49ers would beat the Raiders, even while taking the points with the underdogs in each case. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d20e3b12-b0ca-45f8-a14c-925af9b754bb (scored 100)

## More fantasy bust calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put their rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at their cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Zay Flowers: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 0)
- Chris Welsh on Austin Ekeler: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Joe Pisapia on Rashee Rice: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Breece Hall: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Derek Brown on Chuba Hubbard: Derek Brown ("Deebro") names three busts to avoid in 2025 fantasy drafts: Kyren Williams at an RB1 price, Chuba Hubbard as a top-20 RB, and Xavier Worthy as their ultimate bust, arguing Rashee Rice is the clear No. 1 receiver in Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9cc5c06e-e0c5-45bd-8b93-fa089f8673a8 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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