# Derek Brown: Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; they forecast Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns. **Claimed:** Aug 23, 2025 **Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/derek-brown **Outlet:** FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/top-10-breakout-candidates-middle-late-round-fantasy-football-draft-targets-ep-1664 9 checkable claims — 5 sleeper calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 9 have settled, averaging 50.7 out of 100, against 24.1 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Top fifteen wide receiver top. I'm gonna stand on that top fifteen. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Brian Robinson to move — “cut or traded”** - Kind: Trade and Signing Calls · About: Brian Robinson - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (he's being drafted as a wide receiver three)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Jacory Croskey-Merritt to outplay his draft cost (He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Tucker Kraft to outplay his draft cost (going is the tight end eleven)** - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Tucker Kraft to finish top 6 at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers - Verdict: scored 8.33 out of 100, against 16.67 for a naive guess - **Tetairoa McMillan to record 10–12 receiving tds** - Kind: Player Season Numbers · About: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **George Pickens to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys - Verdict: scored 8.33 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Brian Robinson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/brian-robinson - George Pickens — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/george-pickens - Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys - Ricky Pearsall — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/ricky-pearsall - San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/49ers - Jacory Croskey-Merritt — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jacory-croskey-merritt - Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders - Tetairoa McMillan — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tetairoa-mcmillan - Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/panthers - Tucker Kraft — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tucker-kraft - Green Bay Packers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/packers ## What others said about the same people - Parker Hurley on Khalid Kareem: Hurley predicts the 49ers will release Khalil Kareem when Nate Hobbs is activated and cut Brandin Cooks when C.J. West returns, while arguing Sebastian Valdez won't be the one let go and no cornerback will be cut. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a729417-69ee-493a-9bec-d905fd1a7082 (scored 0) - Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/46f7646f-2c64-4827-a522-67975af79fb6 (scored 95.24) - Tyler Sullivan on Washington Commanders: Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1bb32676-c3b3-4b8e-8a03-b58396cf98bf (scored 100) - John Breech on Washington Commanders: Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9fddc8e1-3823-4252-bdd7-f81ef11b1da3 (scored 90.48) - Jordan Dajani on Washington Commanders: Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e2531f3a-2140-40ac-9831-5ff8224e090f (scored 95.24) - Eva Geitheim on Washington Commanders: Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c011abef-0b18-41ad-acad-6a67dfbd41fd (scored 100) ## More sleeper calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Chris Welsh on Tyler Warren: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Rashee Rice: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0) - Joe Pisapia on Tyreek Hill: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0) - Jake Ciely on Braelon Allen: Counting down their top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6b5a40bc-e349-48a1-ad37-18ee448ebe75 (scored 0) - Ryan Wormeli on Cedric Tillman: Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than their QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2c695b79-bc5e-4d3f-8136-6705656267a2 (scored 0) - Ryan Wormeli on Calvin Ridley: Warmley ranks Nico Collins their WR4 and Drake London their WR5, argues Ja'Marr Chase should be the No. 1 fantasy player again, has Tetairoa McMillan inside their top 20 receivers, and says Emeka Egbuka could be a top-24 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0716e9e8-c302-49d3-bd08-21cb0a8941e6 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=derek-brown