# Isaac Saul: Saul sticks with the prediction he made two weeks earlier: Trump wins the presidency overall while losing Pennsylvania, even though he concedes he'd probably pick Harris if making the call fresh.

**Claimed:** Nov 4, 2024
**Pundit:** Isaac Saul — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/isaac-saul
**Outlet:** Tangle (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/66510864c0852400122bc7be/e/67291217580049df8f1a24ef/media.mp3

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Based on information I had two weeks ago, I predicted that Trump would win the election but lose Pennsylvania... I'm also not feeling so moved to abandon my initial call. I still think Trump just has more paths to the presidency electorally and so I'm hanging tight for the final forty eight hours.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0)
- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=isaac-saul