# Chris Welsh: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.

**Claimed:** Aug 30, 2025
**Pundit:** Chris Welsh — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/chris-welsh
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/draft-or-pass-on-these-fantasy-football-gambles-boom-or-bust-picks-for-2025-ep-1675

16 checkable claims — 9 sleeper calls, 5 fantasy bust calls and 2 positional finishes — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 25 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

14 of 16 have settled so far, averaging 85.7 out of 100, against 12.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> The rushing upside makes him a top ten quarterback draft.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Tyler Warren to outplay his draft cost (tight end eleven)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Austin Ekeler to fall short of his draft cost (high into the thirties)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty four)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tetairoa McMillan, New Orleans Saints
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Jacory Croskey-Merritt to fall short of his draft cost (the seventh rounds)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Travis Kelce to outplay his draft cost (the sixty seventh player, the sixth tight end)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (a round fifty one)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Travis Hunter to outplay his draft cost (outside the top thirty)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Christian McCaffrey to outplay his draft cost (the seventh player overall)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Christian McCaffrey
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Drake Maye to outplay his draft cost (QB sixteen on a ADP)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Drake Maye, New England Patriots
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver thirty two)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (the twelfth wide receiver on the consensus ADP)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Breece Hall to outplay his draft cost (RB nineteen forty three overall)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Breece Hall, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (fifty nine overall)**
  - Kind: Sleeper Calls · About: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Justin Fields to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Justin Fields, New York Jets
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess
- **Joe Mixon to fall short of his draft cost (one O two overall RB thirty seven)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Drake Maye to finish top ? at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Drake Maye, New England Patriots
  - Verdict: too vague to check

## Who this take is about

- Tyler Warren — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tyler-warren
- Indianapolis Colts — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/colts
- Austin Ekeler — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/austin-ekeler
- Washington Commanders — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/commanders
- Tetairoa McMillan — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tetairoa-mcmillan
- New Orleans Saints — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/saints
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/jacory-croskey-merritt
- Travis Kelce — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/travis-kelce
- Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs
- RJ Harvey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rj-harvey
- Denver Broncos — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/broncos
- Travis Hunter — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/travis-hunter
- Jacksonville Jaguars — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jaguars
- Christian McCaffrey — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/christian-mccaffrey
- Drake Maye — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-maye
- New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots
- Rashee Rice — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/rashee-rice
- Tyreek Hill — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tyreek-hill
- Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/dolphins
- Breece Hall — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/breece-hall
- New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets
- Carolina Panthers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/panthers
- Justin Fields — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/justin-fields
- Joe Mixon — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/joe-mixon
- Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans

## What others said about the same people

- Chris Simms on Kansas City Chiefs: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 100)
- Connor Rogers on Kansas City Chiefs: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100)
- Steven Ruiz on Houston Texans: Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/a30ff469-4972-4c48-855b-ba984e4de9d0 (scored 0)
- Nate Tice on Jacksonville Jaguars: Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b8378e16-ea5c-4107-a883-28aaf0e71134 (scored 100)
- Jake Arthur on Kansas City Chiefs: Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ca7ab74e-ab34-4ed6-a77f-2c7e9f8c8c4d (scored 97.62)
- Zach Hicks on Kansas City Chiefs: Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ddbaddad-c15e-4e6f-a6ac-f066de6cdc2a (scored 97.62)

## More sleeper calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Tom Strachan on Ricky Pearsall: Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c42eacc5-eb10-4103-a94d-50545a487cbb (scored 100)
- Ryan Wormeli on Ricky Pearsall: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 100)
- Derek Brown on DeVonta Smith: Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave his own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/effe2fda-3dcb-489f-a1e1-f8fa5b11ada7 (scored 100)
- Derek Brown on George Pickens: Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; he forecasts Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9d95277c-e110-411f-8934-9a1282c3286e (scored 100)
- Ryan Wormeli on Cedric Tillman: Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/2c695b79-bc5e-4d3f-8136-6705656267a2 (scored 0)
- Jake Ciely on Romeo Doubs: Counting down his top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6b5a40bc-e349-48a1-ad37-18ee448ebe75 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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