# Justin Robert Young: Young said he, like his guest, would land on the "win in name only" scenario — Democrats taking the House while Republicans hold the Senate — and added that it would not shock him if Iowa's Ashley Hinson won by five, six, or even ten points.

**Claimed:** Sep 22, 2026
**Pundit:** Justin Robert Young — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/justin-robert-young
**Outlet:** Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/216982580/9572a39f30cd800ee7303a5f426367e6.mp3

3 checkable claims — 2 chamber control and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

> Win in name only. That is that is the right now, the most crowded lane, and that is that is where I would probably be as well.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Win in name only... that is where I would probably be as well. [scenario: Democrats take the house by 15 seats or under and Republicans keep the senate]**
  - Kind: Chamber Control
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Then we have win in name only. This is Democrats take the house by 15 seats or under and Republicans keep the senate... that is where I would probably be as well.**
  - Kind: Chamber Control
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **this would it shock me at all if if Ashley Henson wins by five or six? Like, no. It it wouldn't to be totally honest with you, it wouldn't shock me at all if she wins by 10.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More chamber control

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 0)
- Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100)
- David Pakman: Reviewing the final 2024 forecasts, Pakman said the Senate outcome was essentially settled and stated his own expectation that Republicans would win control of the chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45530dc9-dd97-4b13-ba4a-53e34dcf9e3f (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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