# David Axelrod: Axelrod treats Republican control of the House as settled and only the margin in doubt, sees a slight edge for Herschel Walker in Georgia's Senate race because of the national year, and expects Mike DeWine and Brian Kemp to win their governorships. **Claimed:** Nov 2, 2022 **Pundit:** David Axelrod — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/david-axelrod **Outlet:** Hacks On Tap — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/hacks-on-tap **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/257/traffic.megaphone.fm/VMP7328182892.mp3 4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 4 have settled, averaging 75 out of 100, against 75 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think we're probably all in agreement that it's a matter of margin and not outcome there. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **DeWine, the governor, is running away with the governor's race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **you may see a, ultimately, a slight edge here, for Walker because of the year** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I'm gonna I'm gonna bet on a horse called Kemp there.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **we'll talk about the house later, but we... I think we're probably all in agreement that it's a matter of margin and not outcome there.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=david-axelrod