# Lakshya Jain: Despite his site's new nonpartisan polling average showing a razor-thin Democratic lead, he said he expects Republicans to win the national House popular vote and considers them clear favorites to take the House majority.

**Claimed:** Oct 30, 2022
**Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain
**Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket
**How it reached us:** published in writing
**Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/10/30/a-nonpartisan-generic-ballot-aggregator/

2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 house popular vote margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

1 of 2 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote, are clear favorites to win the House, and have 50/50 odds of taking back the Senate.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote, are clear favorites to win the House**
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **We believe Republicans are on track to win the popular vote**
  - Kind: House Popular Vote Margins
  - Verdict: too vague to check

## More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- David Sacks: Sacks forecast a good night for Republicans, saying they would win the House and also take the Senate, driven by the economy and inflation. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fc7b04fc-0539-4075-b2de-339a5121db43 (scored 0)
- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 100)
- Simon Rosenberg: Rosenberg, quoted from a weekend post, argued the nonpartisan Senate polling showed no red wave and that Democrats remained favored to win the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e0ff6671-0433-44b5-8962-14c22980fcc0 (scored 100)
- Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain