# Ben Shapiro: Shapiro argued the midterm environment was breaking toward Republicans: he predicted the GOP would win the national generic/House vote by five to seven points, said Ted Budd and Brian Kemp would cruise in North Carolina and Georgia, expected strong Republican gubernatorial candidates in Arizona and Georgia to pull Blake Masters and Herschel Walker to victory, said Joe Lombardo would win Nevada's governorship, and made Lee Zeldin beating Kathy Hochul in New York his 'sleeper pick.' **Claimed:** Oct 26, 2022 **Pundit:** Ben Shapiro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro **Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV4779433551.mp3?updated=1763149917 7 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 1 house popular vote margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 7 have settled, averaging 53.9 out of 100, against 77.5 for a naive guess at the same calls. > That is my sleeper pick is is that Kathy Hochul goes out to Lee Zeldin. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **you would expect, by the way, in both Arizona and Georgia, the strength of the Republican at the top of the ticket on the governor's side is going to help drag those senatorial candidates across the finish line** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In the senate, you have North Carolina. Bud is running away with that race.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **you would expect, by the way, in both Arizona and Georgia, the strength of the Republican at the top of the ticket on the governor's side is going to help drag those senatorial candidates across the finish line** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Races like Georgia. Brian Kemp is running away with that race against the vaunted and sainted Stacey Abrams.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Again, governors' races in Nevada, it looks like Lombardo is gonna win that race. That's the Republican in Nevada.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **That is my sleeper pick is is that Kathy Hochul goes out to Lee Zeldin.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **That is with them assuming a generic ballot advantage for Republicans about three points. I don't think it's three points. I think it's gonna be five to seven points.** - Kind: House Popular Vote Margins - Verdict: scored 77.2 out of 100, against 42.5 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ben-shapiro