# Harrison Lavelle: In Split Ticket's House ratings update two weeks before the 2022 midterms, Lavelle shifted most competitive districts rightward while still rating Democrats favored in a long list of seats, gave Republicans the edge in AZ-06, MT-01, NY-01 and OR-05, and said the new ratings leave the GOP at exactly the 218-seat majority threshold. **Claimed:** Oct 26, 2022 **Pundit:** Harrison Lavelle — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/harrison-lavelle **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/10/26/house-temperature-check-two-weeks-out/ 26 checkable claims — 25 race winners and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 26 have settled, averaging 91.5 out of 100, against 75.2 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Our new ratings keep the GOP at the 218 seat majority threshold, foreshadowing sizable future gains if Republicans win 2/3rds of the outstanding Tossups. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **New Mexico’s 1st (Stansbury) (SAFE DEMOCRATIC to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Incumbent Melanie Stansbury is ultimately favored to win** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **our Leans Democratic seats (i.e., OR-06, WA-08, VA-07) only that Democrats seem slightly favored to win them** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **VA’s 10th (Wexton) (SAFE DEMOCRATIC to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Democrats aren’t at serious risk here** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Oregon’s 4th (Open) (LIKELY DEMOCRATIC to LEANS DEMOCRATIC) ... this seat will be moving from LIKELY to LEANS DEMOCRATIC** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **New Jersey’s 11th (Sherrill) (SAFE DEMOCRATIC to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Republican Paul DeGroot’s path to a closer-than-expected race is therefore not impossible, merely improbable.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **While it is reasonable to expect Brownley to hold on, she might win by less-than-expected.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Montana’s 1st (New) Open (LIKELY to LEANS REPUBLICAN) ... Tranel is a clear underdog** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Alaska At-Large (D) Peltola (TOSSUP to LEANS DEMOCRATIC) ... Democrats are set to hold onto a Trump +10 seat** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **we feel like keeping a LEANS DEMOCRATIC rating unless we get a clearer picture of Zeldin’s position in the gubernatorial race that compels us to predict a Santos win** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **In New York, Split Ticket recently moved the gubernatorial race to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC, acknowledging a potentially-close race between Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin and Governor Kathy Hochul.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Republicans are not expected to win this seat ... SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **California’s 25th and 26th (D) Ruiz & (D) Brownley (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Ruiz is still a capable incumbent who ... should not lose his race against outmatched Republican Brian Hawkins** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Arizona’s 4th (D) Stanton (LIKELY to LEANS DEMOCRATIC) ... incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton is favored to beat Republican Kelly Cooper** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Down ballot lag in ancestrally-Republican Chester County could help Republican Guy Ciarrocchi exceed expectations against 6th district Democrat Chrissy Houlahan ... SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen is favored to hold the seat for the Democrats ... LIKELY to LEANS DEMOCRATIC** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **The GOP is most likely to win the Tossup race in OR-05 (Biden +9)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Illinois’s 11th (D) Foster (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... Foster is clearly favored to win** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Republican Nick LaLota, in particular, seems poised to comfortably succeed Zeldin ... LEANS to LIKELY REPUBLICAN** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Florida’s 23rd (D) Open (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... His shoo-in replacement is Jared Moskowitz** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Large statewide victories by Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio also stand to help GOP nominee Joe Budd** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **our Leans Democratic seats (i.e., OR-06, WA-08, VA-07) only that Democrats seem slightly favored to win them** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Our new ratings keep the GOP at the 218 seat majority threshold** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **Arizona’s 6th (D) Open (LEANS to LIKELY REPUBLICAN) ... Juan Ciscomani ... has long been favored over ex-state senator Kirsten Engel** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **North Carolina’s 14th (New) Open (SAFE to LIKELY DEMOCRATIC) ... if entrepreneur Pat Harrigan wants to hold state senator Jeff Jackson to a modest victory** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **our Leans Democratic seats (i.e., OR-06, WA-08, VA-07) only that Democrats seem slightly favored to win them** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Large statewide victories by Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio also stand to help GOP nominee Joe Budd** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=harrison-lavelle