# Harrison Lavelle: Split Ticket's final House ratings forecast a 234-201 Republican majority, with Republicans picking off a long list of Democratic-held seats (including IN-01, OH-09, RI-02, CT-05, NV-03, PA-17, MI-07, IL-17, TX-34) while Democrats hold ME-02, PA-08, TX-28, MN-02, NY-17, MI-08 and CA-13. **Claimed:** Nov 7, 2022 **Pundit:** Harrison Lavelle — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/harrison-lavelle **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/11/06/our-final-house-ratings/ 37 checkable claims — 34 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 37 have settled, averaging 58.9 out of 100, against 77.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Ohio-1 (Biden +8.5) (LEANS R) Republican Steve Chabot is favored to beat Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Minnesota-2 (Biden +7) (LEANS D) Incumbent Democrat Angie Craig is expected to defeat Republican Tyler Kistner in a rematch on Tuesday.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Maine-2 (Trump +6) (LEANS D) Democrat Jared Golden is the slight frontrunner in a rematch against former Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Texas-34 (Biden +15.5) (LEANS R)... The 34th District may actually be a more promising target for Republicans** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **California-13 (Biden +11) (LEANS D)... Democratic assemblyman Adam Gray is a slight favorite to defeat Republican businessman John Duarte** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Michigan-8 (Biden +2) (LEANS D) Democratic incumbent Dan Kildee is favored to win against Republican Paul Junge.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **New York-17 (Biden +10) (LEANS D)... he is the favorite to beat Republican assemblyman Mike Lawler** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **New York-19 (LEANS R)... Split Ticket believes that crossover voters will carry Molinaro over the line with general election turnout** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Illinois-17 (Biden +8) (LEANS R)... Republican Esther Joy King... is favored to defeat Democratic weatherman Eric Sorensen** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Pennsylvania-17 (Biden +6) (LEANS R)... Republican businessman Jeremy Shaffer is slightly favored to defeat Democrat Chris Deluzio** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Three seats are also moving from LIKELY to LEANS : Georgia-2, New Jersey-3, and Washington-3... Challengers Bob Healey (NJ-03) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03) have both fundraised credibly and chipped away at entrenched partisan leanings enough to run competitive races.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Nevada-1 (LEANS D)... Nevada-1 (Titus) and New Hampshire-1 (Pappas) are two other districts that could very easily throw out their Democratic incumbents.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **There are four SAFE to LIKELY shifts in total. California-21, Colorado-3, Washington-6 are moving onto the board because incumbents Jim Costa, Lauren Boebert, and Derek Kilmer underperformed in 2020 and could win by less than 10 points.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Texas-28 (Biden +7) (LEANS D)... veteran Democrat Henry Cuellar is a favorite to beat upstart Republican challenger Cassy Garcia in Texas-28.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Connecticut-5 (Biden +11) (LEANS D to LEANS R)... Republican George Logan now finds himself favored to unseat Democratic incumbent Jahana Hayes.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **California-21, Colorado-3, Washington-6 are moving onto the board because incumbents Jim Costa, Lauren Boebert, and Derek Kilmer underperformed in 2020 and could win by less than 10 points.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **New Hampshire-1 (LEANS D)... Nevada-1 (Titus) and New Hampshire-1 (Pappas) are two other districts that could very easily throw out their Democratic incumbents.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Nevada-3 (Biden +7) (LEANS R) Republican April Becker is favored to defeat Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in the 3rd district** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Though unopposed last cycle, Raja Krishnamoorthi also falls into this category because Illinois-8 is more Republican down-ballot** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Washington-8 (LEANS D)... fundamentals (i.e. WA primary) point to modest Democratic victories** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Michigan-7 (Biden +1) (LEANS R) Republican state senator Tom Barrett is our pick against incumbent Democrat Elissa Slotkin.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Pennsylvania-8 (Trump +3) (LEANS D) While Kaptur could go down, Trump-district Democrat Matt Cartwright seems likely to join Jared Golden in surviving a difficult year.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Virginia-7 (LEANS D)... The situation is similar in Virginia-7 (Spanberger) and Washington-8 (Schrier), where fundamentals... point to modest Democratic victories** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Nebraska-2 (LEANS R)... Two seats where Republicans are favored to win, Nebraska-2 (Bacon) and New York-19 (Open), could also go the other way.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Ohio-9 (Trump +3) (LEANS R) In one of our bolder calls, Republican JR Majewski is favored to unseat long-time Democrat Marcy Kaptur** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Sanford Bishop (GA-02) had a close call in 2010 but should win more easily this cycle if Black turnout remains strong** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **California-49 (LEANS D)... California-49 (Levin) is probably the best opportunity Republicans have to pick off a Democratic seat in the Golden State.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Rhode Island-2 (Biden +14) (LEANS R) Republican Allan Fung is favored against Democrat Seth Magaziner in the 2nd district** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **California-21, Colorado-3, Washington-6 are moving onto the board because incumbents Jim Costa, Lauren Boebert, and Derek Kilmer underperformed in 2020 and could win by less than 10 points.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Indiana-1 (Biden +8) (LEANS R) Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green is expected to narrowly beat Democratic incumbent Frank Mrvan.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **California-22 (Biden +13) (LEANS R)... Republican Rep. David Valadao is favored to beat assemblyman Rudy Salas** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Three seats are also moving from LIKELY to LEANS : Georgia-2, New Jersey-3, and Washington-3... Challengers Bob Healey (NJ-03) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03) have both fundraised credibly and chipped away at entrenched partisan leanings enough to run competitive races.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Oregon-6 (LEANS D)... In Oregon-6 (Open) baseline partisanship should help Democrat Andrea Salinas** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **New York-3 (LEANS D)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Split Ticket is predicting a 234 to 201 Republican House majority.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=harrison-lavelle