# Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's model makes Kamala Harris a narrow 53% favorite in the Electoral College, with Harris the slightest favorite in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada and Trump slightly ahead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. It also has Republicans as significant favorites to take the Senate and Democrats marginally favored (52%) to flip the House. **Claimed:** Oct 26, 2024 **Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2024/10/26/temperature-check-10-26-model-wars-and-is-early-voting-predictive/ 10 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 2 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 10 have settled, averaging 40 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Our forecast yet again gives Kamala Harris a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Our forecast yet again gives Kamala Harris a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **She remains the narrowest of favorites in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **while Trump maintains a slight edge in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Democrats remain marginally favored to flip the chamber, but at 52%, this race is tighter than ever before... we'd probably pick the Democrats if we had to** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Our Senate update should come as no surprise, as Republicans remain significant favorites to flip the chamber.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **while Trump maintains a slight edge in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **while Trump maintains a slight edge in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain