# Harrison Lavelle: Relaying Split Ticket's House ratings, he says Republicans are favored to retake the House, with the forecast at 223 GOP seats to 195 Democratic seats and 17 tossups still unallocated. He rates Pennsylvania's 12th Likely Democratic for Summer Lee and Iowa's 1st Likely Republican for Mariannette Miller-Meeks, while noting Leans-rated seats like Virginia's 7th and California's 41st are expected to reelect their incumbents. **Claimed:** Nov 4, 2022 **Pundit:** Harrison Lavelle — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/harrison-lavelle **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/11/04/a-look-at-two-house-sleepers/ 7 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 7 have settled, averaging 86.4 out of 100, against 72.9 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Pennsylvania-12 and Iowa-1 are just two out of a long list of sleeper seats rated either LIKELY D or R for Split Ticket. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Districts in the latter category, like Democrat Abigail Spanberger's Virginia-7 ... are expected to reelect their incumbents** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Republican Ken Calvert's California-41, are expected to reelect their incumbents** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Split Ticket released its second to last House ratings update showing Republicans favored to take back the majority in the chamber.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 95 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **progressive Democrat Summer Lee is still a comfortable favorite to win the 12th district ... LIKELY D** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Democrats have struggled to keep up financially in this district, a sign that Republicans have the race locked up. We tend to agree ... LIKELY R** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Our current forecast gives the GOP 223 seats to the Democrats 195, with 17 Tossups yet to be eliminated.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 10 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=harrison-lavelle