# Ben Shapiro: Running the Senate map race by race, Shapiro predicts Republicans lose North Carolina and Ohio but flip Michigan with Mike Rogers, hold Texas with Ken Paxton, Maine with Susan Collins, plus Iowa and Alaska — a net loss of one seat and a retained Senate majority, alongside a 15-to-20-seat House loss. **Claimed:** Oct 14, 2026 **Pundit:** Ben Shapiro — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/ben-shapiro **Outlet:** The Ben Shapiro Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-ben-shapiro-show **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/pfx.vpixl.com/2jSe3/claritaspod.com/measure/mgln.ai/e/121/traffic.megaphone.fm/BVDWV3025354115.mp3 10 checkable claims — 7 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > I think we end up losing 15, 20 seats in the house. I think we end up maintaining the senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that that El Sayed loses that seat. I I I think that Rogers is gonna win that seat.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think the Republicans probably end up netting... Net losing one seat.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **I would say that we're we're certainly gonna lose North Carolina. Right? North Carolina's gone.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think we're gonna retain the seat in Alaska.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think in the end, the Texans will come to their senses, and I would be a little surprised if Salarico ends up winning that race** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think that we have an uphill run-in Ohio... So that one, I think, is very rough race. ... which means that right now what you're talking about is, you know, two losses.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think that we're gonna retain the seat in Iowa.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **And that means that they maintain their majority in the senate.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think we end up losing 15, 20 seats in the house.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think Collins is gonna win in men because she's a pro.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=ben-shapiro