# Pat Fitzmaurice: Fitzmorris made 10 first-round mock picks, starting with Arvel Reese to the Cardinals at No. 3 and including Caleb Downs to Dallas at 12 and Dillon Thieneman to Pittsburgh at 21.

**Claimed:** Apr 19, 2026
**Pundit:** Pat Fitzmaurice — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/pat-fitzmaurice
**Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/nfl-mock-draft-with-trades-the-best-skill-position-sleepers-fantasy-landing-spots-after-round-1-ep-1998

10 checkable claims — 10 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 19 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 10 have settled, averaging 66 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> How about with Caleb Downs, the safety from Ohio State.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Chris Johnson to be picked at number 30**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Chris Johnson, Miami Dolphins
  - Verdict: scored 87.81 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Carnell Tate to be picked at number 6**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Carnell Tate, Cleveland Browns
  - Verdict: scored 91.7 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Francis Mauigoa to be picked at number 9**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Francis Mauigoa, Kansas City Chiefs
  - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Downs to be picked at number 12**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Downs, Dallas Cowboys
  - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Keldric Faulk to be picked at number 15**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Keldric Faulk, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  - Verdict: scored 50 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Cade McDonald to be picked at number 18**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Cade McDonald, Minnesota Vikings
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Dillon Thieneman to be picked at number 21**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Dillon Thieneman, Pittsburgh Steelers
  - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Kadyn Proctor to be picked at number 24**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kadyn Proctor, Cleveland Browns
  - Verdict: scored 59.46 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Caleb Lomu to be picked at number 27**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Caleb Lomu, San Francisco 49ers
  - Verdict: scored 95.76 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Arvell Reese to be picked at number 3**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Arvell Reese, Arizona Cardinals
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Chris Johnson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/chris-johnson
- Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/dolphins
- Carnell Tate — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/carnell-tate
- Cleveland Browns — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/browns
- Francis Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa
- Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs
- Caleb Downs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-downs
- Dallas Cowboys — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cowboys
- Keldric Faulk — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/keldric-faulk
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers
- Cade McDonald — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/cade-mcdonald
- Minnesota Vikings — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/vikings
- Dillon Thieneman — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/dillon-thieneman
- Pittsburgh Steelers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/steelers
- Kadyn Proctor — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kadyn-proctor
- Caleb Lomu — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/caleb-lomu
- San Francisco 49ers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/49ers
- Arvell Reese — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/arvell-reese
- Arizona Cardinals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/cardinals

## What others said about the same people

- Chris Simms on Kansas City Chiefs: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 100)
- Connor Rogers on Kansas City Chiefs: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100)
- Sam Monson on Minnesota Vikings: Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b810ffd-fd93-4ea2-a208-b1353dea5fb0 (scored 100)
- Jake Arthur on Kansas City Chiefs: Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ca7ab74e-ab34-4ed6-a77f-2c7e9f8c8c4d (scored 97.62)
- Zach Hicks on Kansas City Chiefs: Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ddbaddad-c15e-4e6f-a6ac-f066de6cdc2a (scored 97.62)
- Nate Tice on Dallas Cowboys: Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6211c80-3d1c-46b8-8a0c-151fc0ba92de (scored 100)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92)
- Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71)
- Nick Shook on Jermod McCoy: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 1.94)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52)
- Jeff Cavanaugh on Lorenzo Styles: Streaming from the NFL Combine, Jeff pegged safety Dylan Thienemann's draft range at roughly picks 20-35, said LSU safety AJ Halsey would cost a second- or third-round pick, and insisted Sonny Styles' brother would not be a top-50 selection despite a fast 40. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f1f48cc1-f9d5-44ca-b130-2c6447b49bc6 (scored 0.51)
- Scott Bogman on Olaivavega Ioane: He gave David Bailey to Tennessee at 4, Sonny Styles to Washington at 7, Caleb Downs to Cincinnati at 10, Carnell Tate to the Rams at 13, Denzel Boston to the Jets at 16, Kayden McDonald to Carolina at 19, Vega Ioane to the Chargers at 22, Peter Woods to Chicago at 25, Emmanuel Pregnon to Houston at 28 and Romello Height to Denver at 31, and insisted both Bailey and Downs are top-10 locks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0b0cd1a9-31f7-40d9-9b9e-f52957c10494 (scored 70.71)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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