# Harrison Lavelle: Co-author of Split Ticket's final 2022 picks, forecasting a 50-49 Republican Senate edge short of a majority, a Republican House flip at 234-201, and a national environment around R+2. **Claimed:** Nov 8, 2022 **Pundit:** Harrison Lavelle — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/harrison-lavelle **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2022/11/08/a-final-note/ 6 checkable claims — 4 seat counts, 1 control of congres and 1 house popular vote margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 6 have settled, averaging 68.8 out of 100, against 52.1 for a naive guess at the same calls. > In the House, Republicans can expect to flip the chamber with a clearer 234 to 201 majority. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 49, just short of an outright majority** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 80 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess - **In the House, Republicans can expect to flip the chamber with a clearer 234 to 201 majority.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Our forecast shows the GOP winning 50 Senate seats to the Democrats’ 49** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 60 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess - **In the House, Republicans can expect to flip the chamber with a clearer 234 to 201 majority.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess - **So if we had to describe the national environment that best matches our ratings, we’d probably pick somewhere in the ballpark of R+2.** - Kind: House Popular Vote Margins - Verdict: scored 92.8 out of 100, against 42.5 for a naive guess - **a clearer 234 to 201 majority** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 40 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess ## More seat counts The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 45) - Glenn Beck: Beck forecast Republicans winning about 53 or 54 Senate seats and clearly taking the House, with GOP wins in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire Senate races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f9c85b52-0829-4303-9e70-7fd00e9a17fc (scored 20) - Doug Schoen: Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/386f50c7-6523-4997-8d80-f0d9bae3ac4b (scored 0) - Jim Geraghty: Garrity forecast a large Republican wave: a GOP House majority of roughly 229-241 seats, with his final call at 235 Republicans to 200 Democrats, and a 51-48 Republican Senate edge with Bolduc, Laxalt and Johnson winning while Georgia goes to a runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4bdd2c52-9d51-432d-8366-c693d886726e (scored 35) - Ben Shapiro: On election-day 2022, Shapiro predicted Republicans would end up with 53 to 54 Senate seats and thus a Senate majority, with Blake Masters winning Arizona and Adam Laxalt taking Nevada, while expressing doubt about New Hampshire. He also said Brian Kemp would crush Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race and that a red wave would carry Republicans in the House. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1c0cbfad-0103-4466-b426-ad65b638d7f0 (scored 20) - Steve Deace: On the eve of the midterms Deace projected a 42-seat Republican gain in the House and dismissed the idea that Republicans could take the House without also taking the Senate. He also expected Kari Lake to win the Arizona governorship and suggested Laxalt would win Nevada's Senate race even if his margin were squeezed. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/65d9dec6-348b-4e7c-921c-f9ddd93ae844 (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=harrison-lavelle