# Lance Zierlein: Zierlein praised the Texans' first-round trade-up for guard Keelan Rutledge, said Francis Manoa has a chance to be a Pro Bowl guard, mocked specific players to the Texans on Day 2, predicted Kevon Thibodeaux will not get another contract with the Giants (only one more year), compared Caleb Downs' ceiling to Jalen Petrie, and predicted the Rams will draft much higher than 13 next year.

**Claimed:** Apr 24, 2026
**Pundit:** Lance Zierlein — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lance-zierlein
**Outlet:** John and Lance — ESPN Houston (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/john-and-lance-espn-houston-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/audioboom.com/posts/8895103.mp3?modified=1777042750&sid=4936948&source=rss

6 checkable claims — 2 mock draft picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 pro bowl and all-pro call, 1 team draft slot call and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 44.1 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I gave them a tackle in the first round because somebody at NFL Network convinced me.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Christen Miller to be picked at number 38**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Christen Miller, Houston Texans
  - Verdict: scored 84.09 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Kyle Louis to be picked “the next pick the Texans have in the second round” (picks 33–64)**
  - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Kyle Louis, Houston Texans
  - Verdict: scored 4.05 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess
- **Kyle Louis to be 1st on the depth chart**
  - Kind: Depth Chart Calls · About: Kyle Louis, Houston Texans
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Los Angeles Rams to pick “They're gonna draft a lot higher”**
  - Kind: Team Draft Slot Calls · About: Los Angeles Rams
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Kayvon Thibodeaux to move to New York Giants**
  - Kind: Trade and Signing Calls · About: Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **Francis Mauigoa to make Pro Bowl**
  - Kind: Pro Bowl and All-Pro Calls · About: Francis Mauigoa
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## Who this take is about

- Christen Miller — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/christen-miller
- Houston Texans — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/texans
- Kyle Louis — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kyle-louis
- Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams
- Kayvon Thibodeaux — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kayvon-thibodeaux
- New York Giants — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/giants
- Francis Mauigoa — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/francis-mauigoa

## What others said about the same people

- Connor Rogers on Los Angeles Rams: Rogers made his own Week 2 calls, taking the Packers, Eagles (by at least 10), Panthers (by at least a field goal), Cowboys (by at least six), Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also noted Baltimore was his Super Bowl pick and said it wouldn't shock him if Jacksonville hosted the AFC Championship Game. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/0c2a0048-cb74-4da9-8ef4-695cc6571cdf (scored 100)
- Chris Simms on Los Angeles Rams: Simms went through every Week 2 game with predicted final scores, picking the Texans, Bears, Steelers (as an upset), Packers, Ravens, Eagles, Buccaneers, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys, 49ers, Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. He also reiterated that Denver was his preseason Super Bowl pick while predicting the Broncos would fall to 0-2. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/32db5f5e-13da-47e3-b280-2aa9a80d172b (scored 57.14)
- Chris Long on Los Angeles Rams: Previewing Week 2, Long called New England a spot to bounce back against Pittsburgh, projected a 27-14 Patriots win, saw Eagles-Titans as a 23-10 grinder, liked the Rams' spot Monday night against the Giants, and wrote down a Bills 31, Lions 23 final for the Thursday nighter. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ab903e00-9f1b-4862-91a6-96343679649c (scored 100)
- Phil Simms on New York Giants: Phil Simms said the Giants can hang with and beat the Rams in their Monday night matchup, citing the Rams' sluggish showing in Australia and the Giants' offensive versatility. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/149102cf-b9f9-4fd8-8a72-b501daece227 (scored 0)
- Chris Simms on New York Giants: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 97.62)
- Connor Rogers on New York Giants: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100)

## More mock draft picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wilson on J.J. McCarthy: Recalling his pre-draft evaluation, Wilson notes he had ranked J.J. McCarthy as the fifth quarterback in the 2024 class and given him a second-round grade rather than a first-round one, citing the gap between Michigan's system and NFL demands. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/44cc5859-8b2b-4fbf-b5c0-62c635f2e357 (scored 36.92)
- Nick Shook on Max Iheanachor: Shook walks through his full first-round mock draft, assigning a prospect to every pick from No. 1 to No. 32, headlined by Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders, David Bailey to the Jets and Jeremiah Love to the Cardinals in the top three. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7d4209aa-2e2d-47a2-b6e5-791d16d209cb (scored 87.81)
- Gregg Rosenthal on K.C. Concepcion: Rosenthal disagrees most with Casey Concepcion being left out of the first round, arguing he could go as high as the top 15 and certainly won't last past receiver-needy teams in the late twenties. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fae9a3a-7fd8-454c-99cc-0a8400c35d7d (scored 67.71)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Keyron Crawford: In discussing teams without first-round picks, Jeremiah projected specific Day 2 picks: Clemson WR Antonio Williams to the Falcons at 48, Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez to the Colts in the second round, Oklahoma edge R Mason Thomas to the Packers at 52, and Auburn edge Keiroon Crawford to the Broncos at 62. He also expects Riley Leonard to open as the Colts' starting QB and Travis Hunter to play cornerback full time in Jacksonville. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f60c916c-1b5f-4252-8733-1770c7809577 (scored 80.52)
- Daniel Jeremiah on Carnell Tate: Jeremiah says Denver, not Kansas City, will be the clear favorite in the AFC West this season; he also puts Carnell Tate sixth and Monroe Freeling twentieth on his prospect board, mocks Tate to Cleveland at No. 6, and expects Georgia receiver Branch to be a Day 2 pick after a strong pro day. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/48a1d189-dc0f-4250-aa3b-0e27119c733a (scored 91.7)
- Bucky Brooks on Carnell Tate: In a mock draft covering the first 14 picks, Brooks made the odd-numbered selections: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders at No. 1, a Miami offensive lineman to Arizona at No. 3, Caleb Downs to the Giants at No. 5, Ohio State's Arvell Reese to Washington at No. 7, Carnell Tate to Kansas City at No. 9, tight end Kenyon Sadiq to Miami at No. 11, and Spencer Fano to the Rams at No. 13. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/677f566f-9e38-4dd7-b312-0baad54b440e (scored 80.52)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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