# Kirk Bado: Bado sticks with a scenario in which Democrats take the House but fall short in the Senate, projecting a Democratic net gain of roughly 15 to 20 House seats, with Ossoff safe in Georgia and Democratic wins in Virginia's 1st and 2nd districts.

**Claimed:** Oct 2, 2026
**Pundit:** Kirk Bado — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/kirk-bado
**Outlet:** Politics Politics Politics (Justin Robert Young) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/politics-politics-politics-justin-robert-young
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/218424594/0ce4b828f28da4d802c824682620de8f.mp3

6 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 2 chamber control and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

> Democrats might net between fifteen and twenty or so seats.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **We're about the... I think we're definitely there in Georgia.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **I'm pretty confident in the house big picture here. ... You were our first person to pick our scenario, and you went down the center with win in name only. So Democrats don't take the senate and win the house by under 15. ... I'm still middle of the road right now.**
  - Kind: Chamber Control
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **We were at winning name only. Democrats don't win the senate. ... I'm still middle of the road right now.**
  - Kind: Chamber Control
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **I still stand by that the the house majority is somewhere gonna be... Democrats might net between fifteen and twenty or so seats.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **The wave warning is that Rob Wittman's seat, Virginia one you're talking about... in a wave year that's building right now, you expect that to be competitive, but Democrats do eventually win that.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **that wave watch is that Virginia two seat. Trump carried that by less than a point. If, Elaine Laurie up doesn't beat Jen Higgins there, something's gone horribly wrong. Democrats should win that pretty handedly.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0)
- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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