# Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. **Claimed:** Nov 5, 2024 **Pundit:** Sam Wang — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sam-wang **Outlet:** Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/princeton-election-consortium-sam-wang **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://election.princeton.edu/articles/a-final-snapshot-and-prediction/ 3 checkable claims — 2 seat counts and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 3 have settled, averaging 36.7 out of 100, against 93.3 for a naive guess at the same calls. > That corresponds to about an 8 in 9 probability that Democrats will win the popular vote – and take control of the House. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 55 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **That corresponds to about an 8 in 9 probability that Democrats will win the popular vote – and take control of the House. This is consistent with Nancy Pelosi's public statement that she expects Democrats to regain the majority.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 55 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess ## More seat counts The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 75) - Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5 (scored 80) - Daniel Horowitz: Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c587c5d9-5cd7-4f69-b12f-f9a0c678a913 (scored 95) - Steve Deace: Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39 (scored 80) - Isaac Saul: Recapping and restating his final 2024 call, Saul predicts Trump wins the presidency while Harris carries Pennsylvania, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans ending up with 53 Senate seats. He insists the race is a coin flip but still lands on Trump. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fae76e06-7347-4e3d-b978-448ce89230c0 (scored 100) - Nathan Gonzales: Gonzales said Republicans are favored to win the Senate majority, with Inside Elections' likely projection a GOP net gain of two to four seats, and moved Texas to tilt Republican while keeping Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tilt Democratic. He also laid out the House projection range and the firm's Iowa and Virginia ratings. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/948fc91a-5690-4ab6-9a67-69f6b0c6381a (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=sam-wang