# Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. **Claimed:** Nov 3, 2026 **Pundit:** Tom Bevan — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/tom-bevan **Outlet:** RealClearPolitics Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/realclearpolitics-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdcn.co/e/afp-295344-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0/episodes/8b78eddd-3bae-474d-b84f-ed295db59df0/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0&awEpisodeId=8b78eddd-3bae-474d-b84f-ed295db59df0&feed=pzzjlbXr 15 checkable claims — 12 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 12 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls. > which means Democrats would take the senate 51 to 49 *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “So I give that one to the Republicans too.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I just think this is one that that is gonna... He's gonna get swept away by the the blue wave that's coming... I have Democrats winning, Alaska, Kansas, Texas.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “which means Democrats would take the senate 51 to 49” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I have Democrats winning, Alaska, Kansas, Texas. And obviously, everybody's has North Carolina, so that's the that's the one.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “But I just think Ashley Hinson is gonna pull this one out... So I I have this one going Republican.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “However, Ohio is one of those states that really closes, you know. And so I I have the Republican winning this one” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Ricketts is an incumbent. He's in good standing... So I think he'll withstand the national environment... But I think Republicans will pull this one out.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I'm gonna go with Spencer on this. I think I think Susan Collins... I say she ekes it out.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “yeah, I think I think Tallarico might pull this off” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I I definitely think the Dems are gonna win the governor's race” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “I think Peggy Peggy Flanagan is a very flawed candidate... I just don't see it happening.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think in Michigan, again, I think all the polls favor El Sayed at this point... So I think he wins that race.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “which means Democrats would take the senate 51 to 49” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - “I also think, Petola is gonna pull this out.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - “our RealClearPolitics map is where it Dems plus 26. That seems about right to me.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) - Clay Travis: Clay Travis predicted a Republican sweep in Tennessee — Blackburn for governor, Hagerty for Senate and all nine House seats — said they were optimistic Republicans would flip the Michigan Senate seat from Democrats, and expected the Republican to win the New Hampshire governor's race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8c4341ac-5acc-449c-843e-4361312fe2e0 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=tom-bevan