# Derek Brown: Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; he sits in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light. **Claimed:** Jun 14, 2025 **Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/derek-brown **Outlet:** The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-herd-with-colin-cowherd-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/6-fantasy-football-projections-that-scare-us-for-2025-ep-1587 5 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls and 1 positional finishe — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls. > if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)** - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points** - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Drake Maye, New England Patriots - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Tyreek Hill — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tyreek-hill - Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/dolphins - Xavier Worthy — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/xavier-worthy - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Chase Brown — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/chase-brown - Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals - Kyren Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kyren-williams - Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams - Drake Maye — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-maye - New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots ## What others said about the same people - Chris Simms on Kansas City Chiefs: Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/662b7ba3-1bf6-4ad0-9f93-9f2ab83143fd (scored 100) - Connor Rogers on Kansas City Chiefs: Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/83d1e88b-95a0-45ba-83d3-f86297170c6c (scored 100) - Chris Long on Cincinnati Bengals: Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3df9ea25-e57f-4fd7-b20c-c910a1c3633a (scored 0) - Jake Arthur on Kansas City Chiefs: Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ca7ab74e-ab34-4ed6-a77f-2c7e9f8c8c4d (scored 97.62) - Zach Hicks on Kansas City Chiefs: Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ddbaddad-c15e-4e6f-a6ac-f066de6cdc2a (scored 97.62) - Nate Tice on New England Patriots: Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b6211c80-3d1c-46b8-8a0c-151fc0ba92de (scored 100) ## More fantasy bust calls The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0) - Chris Welsh on Austin Ekeler: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100) - Pat Fitzmaurice on Breece Hall: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0) - Joe Pisapia on Christian McCaffrey: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0) - Sean Kerner on Travis Hunter: Kerner's top move is Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, though he calls Hunter's WR30 price a bit rich given usage uncertainty. He is all-in on Ashton Jeanty as a workhorse with top-five rookie upside, likes Ben Johnson's arrival for Caleb Williams and rookie TE Colston Loveland, expects DeVonta Adams to boost Matthew Stafford's touchdown total over 22.5, and is heavily drafting Jayden Higgins as Houston's No. 2 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ec510a56-f0ae-4583-8e26-5b031d8d6d10 (scored 0) - Jake Ciely on Romeo Doubs: Seeley mocks anyone going back to Kyle Pitts, treating him as a tight end who will burn drafters again, while touting Trey Benson as a discounted value who remains the clear backup to James Connor. He also calls out late-round picks like Justice Hill, Rashad Bateman and Romeo Doubs as upside-less bench wastes. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/98137bb9-928a-4022-9e69-99386656d01a (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=derek-brown