# Derek Brown: Brown is scared of the projections on Chase Brown (RB17), Tyreek Hill (WR14/15), Kyren Williams (RB1 range) and Xavier Worthy (WR20 in PPR), calling each likely to fall short of their draft price; they sit in line with the QB20 projection on Drake May but thinks the rushing touchdown total is light.

**Claimed:** Jun 14, 2025
**Pundit:** Derek Brown — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/derek-brown
**Outlet:** FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/fantasypros-fantasy-football-podcast/6-fantasy-football-projections-that-scare-us-for-2025-ep-1587

5 checkable claims — 4 fantasy bust calls and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 10 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 20 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> if that's where he goes he's gonna be a big bust this coming year because people are expecting RB one production if they are rafting Chase Brown.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver fifteen and ADP)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (the wide receiver twenty)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Chase Brown to fall short of his draft cost (twelve RB overall)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **Kyren Williams to fall short of his draft cost (ranking him as an RB one)**
  - Kind: Fantasy Bust Calls · About: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **Drake Maye to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points**
  - Kind: Positional Finishes · About: Drake Maye, New England Patriots
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## Who this take is about

- Tyreek Hill — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/tyreek-hill
- Miami Dolphins — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/dolphins
- Xavier Worthy — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/xavier-worthy
- Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs
- Chase Brown — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/chase-brown
- Cincinnati Bengals — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/bengals
- Kyren Williams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/kyren-williams
- Los Angeles Rams — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/rams
- Drake Maye — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/drake-maye
- New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots

## What others said about the same people

- Chris Clark on Nikko Remigio: Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/99521265-d5c0-4db1-b2a0-fe77908ea0b3 (scored 0)
- Gilberto Manzano on Josh Downs: Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/67d5af78-94ea-4ee2-a277-5e68347022de (scored 100)
- Joshua Poniatowski on Josh Downs: Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d1752582-a799-48b9-984b-39bf7cb8b709 (scored 100)
- Andrew Erickson on Josh Downs: Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e97e28f2-31fc-4702-915c-63c38477e97d (scored 100)
- Jordan Dajani on Josh Downs: After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f5af1657-8608-4071-a63e-0e7d6124e627 (scored 100)
- Mike Kadlick on Josh Downs: Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45c94482-ef71-413f-834b-2a246271691d (scored 100)

## More fantasy bust calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Ryan Wormeli on Zay Flowers: Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put their rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at their cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/192d6e67-2e0e-49b3-bc82-4c8a77bd5950 (scored 0)
- Chris Welsh on Austin Ekeler: Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/9f0f2132-f3b8-4813-b2b1-374b827d86a8 (scored 100)
- Pat Fitzmaurice on Breece Hall: Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e36f1287-466c-4889-a7ea-c9d86f4b5182 (scored 0)
- Joe Pisapia on Christian McCaffrey: Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3c95c1c-64a4-42b6-9389-58d5fb5b27d1 (scored 0)
- Sean Kerner on Travis Hunter: Kerner's top move is Travis Hunter to Jacksonville, though they call Hunter's WR30 price a bit rich given usage uncertainty. They are all-in on Ashton Jeanty as a workhorse with top-five rookie upside, likes Ben Johnson's arrival for Caleb Williams and rookie TE Colston Loveland, expects DeVonta Adams to boost Matthew Stafford's touchdown total over 22.5, and is heavily drafting Jayden Higgins as Houston's No. 2 receiver. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/ec510a56-f0ae-4583-8e26-5b031d8d6d10 (scored 0)
- Jake Ciely on Romeo Doubs: Seeley mocks anyone going back to Kyle Pitts, treating them as a tight end who will burn drafters again, while touting Trey Benson as a discounted value who remains the clear backup to James Connor. They also call out late-round picks like Justice Hill, Rashad Bateman and Romeo Doubs as upside-less bench wastes. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/98137bb9-928a-4022-9e69-99386656d01a (scored 0)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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