# Mark Halperin: Based on his conversations with Republican campaigns and consultants, Halperin says Democrats are currently positioned to net at least 25 House seats and at least six Senate seats in the midterms, and that the damage could be even larger.

**Claimed:** Sep 28, 2026
**Pundit:** Mark Halperin — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/mark-halperin
**Outlet:** The Megyn Kelly Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-megyn-kelly-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pscrb.fm/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/101/arttrk.com/p/24FDE/claritaspod.com/measure/sxm.simplecastaudio.com/853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7/episodes/84ad0c0b-1230-4933-b62d-52d3d02c6d3e/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=853ccd10-364f-4b0b-831e-c2bed24d85e7&awEpisodeId=84ad0c0b-1230-4933-b62d-52d3d02c6d3e&feed=RV1USAfC

2 checkable claims — 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.

> But right now, I'd say Democrats would pick up at least 25 house seats net and at least six senate seats net today based on talking to campaigns.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **But right now, I'd say Democrats would pick up at least 25 house seats net and at least six senate seats net today based on talking to campaigns. Could be bigger.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **I'd say Democrats would pick up at least 25 house seats net and at least six senate seats net today based on talking to campaigns. Could be bigger.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: not settled yet

## More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 55)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 75)
- Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5 (scored 80)
- Daniel Horowitz: Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c587c5d9-5cd7-4f69-b12f-f9a0c678a913 (scored 95)
- Steve Deace: Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39 (scored 80)
- Isaac Saul: Recapping and restating his final 2024 call, Saul predicts Trump wins the presidency while Harris carries Pennsylvania, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans ending up with 53 Senate seats. He insists the race is a coin flip but still lands on Trump. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fae76e06-7347-4e3d-b978-448ce89230c0 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

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