# Saagar Enjeti: Saagar forecast a narrow Trump win with 271 electoral votes to Harris's 267, giving Harris Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina while Trump takes Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. **Claimed:** Nov 4, 2024 **Pundit:** Saagar Enjeti — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/saagar-enjeti **Outlet:** Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/e7fd5ae7-7621-4e41-9b85-b0ab0164b634/94aa2c32-acbe-41c7-8ebb-b21e01150fdc/audio.mp3?in_playlist=4c1a5135-4197-47c9-b19b-b0ab0164b667 8 checkable claims — 7 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. All 8 have settled, averaging 57.4 out of 100, against 19.6 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I've got at the top line, Donald Trump winning the election with two hundred and seventy one electoral votes *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I've got Pennsylvania going red.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I've got Wisconsin and Michigan going blue for Kamala.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **then I've got Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all going red** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I've got Wisconsin and Michigan going blue for Kamala.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I've got at the top line, Donald Trump winning the election with two hundred and seventy one electoral votes, literally just one over what he needs to win two hundred and sixty seven there for Kamala Harris.** - Kind: Race Margins - Verdict: scored 59 out of 100, against 57 for a naive guess - **I've got North Carolina glowing blue** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **then I've got Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada all going red, which gives him exactly two hundred and seventy one electoral votes** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **there has been enough of a Republican surge that I feel pretty confident calling Arizona for Donald Trump** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100) - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=saagar-enjeti