# Marc Short: Short predicted Republicans would gain 20 to 25 House seats, take the Senate, and that Blake Masters would win Arizona's Senate race. **Claimed:** Nov 6, 2022 **Pundit:** Marc Short — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/marc-short **Outlet:** State of the Union (CNN) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/state-of-the-union-cnn **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/swap.fm/track/2nzGkisFXQswLYT5s325/traffic.megaphone.fm/WMHY8301595779.mp3?updated=1693416180 3 checkable claims — 1 control of congres, 1 race winner and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 3 have settled, averaging 15 out of 100, against 85 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think we pick up the senate, and I actually think we're gonna win a couple of governor's mansions. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I feel like Blake Masters is gonna win Arizona because reality is that the border is a serious issue down there.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “I think we pick up the senate” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - “now he's on the cusp of winning 20 to 25 additional seats” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 45 out of 100, against 55 for a naive guess ## More control of congress The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 0) - Isaac Saul: Saul says Democrats have the House sewn up heading into election night, and that Democrats have good odds of winning the Senate races in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f27d4f5b-e1cc-44b3-8f0b-b9fbd7c422cb (scored 100) - Isaac Saul: Saul asserts that Democrats have the House sewn up, and says Democrats appear to be running away with the statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire while having good odds in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3424d5ea-fb93-4738-8b03-bd5dd4f4d5b7 (scored 100) - Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. They believe the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/351bb670-9f0b-453f-b74c-f93b044bd257 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=marc-short