# Jacob Rubashkin: Rubashkin said Democrats will lose the West Virginia Senate seat and are underdogs in Montana, leaving Republicans as likely as ever to win a Senate majority though probably a small one. He also ran through Inside Elections' House ratings, including Likely Republican in Arizona's 2nd, Solid Democratic in Oregon's 6th, Tilt Republican in New York's 17th and Arizona's 6th, Tilt Democratic in Pennsylvania's 7th, Kaptur favored in Ohio's 9th, and Golden looking strong in Maine. **Claimed:** Oct 17, 2024 **Pundit:** Jacob Rubashkin — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/jacob-rubashkin **Outlet:** The Inside Elections Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/the-inside-elections-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://podcasts.captivate.fm/media/3e1809c6-768e-49bb-9872-504c9c62d290/ie033.mp3 10 checkable claims — 9 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 10 have settled, averaging 90 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls. > The prospect of a Republican majority remains as high as ever, but the prospect of a large Republican majority is perhaps decreasing. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **If I had to pick one, I would probably say Arizona six, which we have rated as tilt Republican.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **There are underdogs in Montana.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **that's gonna be a challenge, and I think that's why we think Marcy Kaptur is favored** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **We just moved that race to solid Democratic, and you guys still have it at lean Democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think that that that district, you know, we currently have it rated as tilt democratic.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **I've I've always been bullish on Jared Golden even as we've kind of moved him in... Into more vulnerable positions... But I I do ultimately think, you know, he's... He looks pretty strong there.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **I think we have it appropriately rated at likely Republican, but the the the congressional race is still clearly unsettled.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **The big picture for the senate is still bad for Democrats... They are gonna lose West Virginia.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **we have that race rated tilt republican, which, gosh, if you went back a year and told me that, that would be the worst opportunity for Democrats in in New York** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **So what this means is that the the prospect of a Republican majority remains as high as ever, but the prospect of a large Republican majority is perhaps decreasing** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=jacob-rubashkin