# Isaac Saul: Saul walked through a live Senate map and predicted a historically good night for Democrats in 2026: Democratic wins in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan and Ohio, Republicans holding Kansas and (reluctantly) Texas, for a 52-48 Democratic Senate majority, plus a Democratic House. **Claimed:** Oct 22, 2026 **Pundit:** Isaac Saul — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/isaac-saul **Outlet:** Tangle (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/tangle-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://sphinx.acast.com/p/open/s/66510864c0852400122bc7be/e/6ada02eab4643bca15cc5d28/media.mp3 15 checkable claims — 11 race winners, 2 control of congress and 2 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > But that's a fifty two forty eight democratic majority in the senate. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **I think he's got... I think it's in the bag, dude.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **New Hampshire, honestly, I like John Sununu, and I could see a world where he pulls that out, but... I'm not screwing around here.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **So, I'm gonna give it to Ken Paxton reluctantly because, I I don't feel confident about the pick... it's hard for me to imagine Texas flipping.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Georgia where Jon Ossoff is basically wiping the floor with the competition, so that's blue.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **We're in a midterm race. Ohio's blue.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I am gonna make that state blue. Mary Peltol is going to the senate in my view.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **But that's a fifty two forty eight democratic majority in the senate.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **Kansas, I can't imagine a world where Kansas actually goes to anybody but Roger Marshall... So I'll give Republicans that.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Ashley Hinson, not a bad candidate, not doing well in the polls, not Joni Ernst. I was going blue.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **She's not winning this race. I just don't see it. That's 50 right there.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **The house feels like a slam dunk.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **That's the senate majority for Democrats, 51 right there.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: not settled yet - **So that is North Carolina where Republicans have stopped spending money. Okay? So that's blue.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **Minnesota, already blue, likely d.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **But that's a fifty two forty eight democratic majority in the senate.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=isaac-saul