# Logan Phillips: Phillips's forecast gives Democrats roughly a 70% chance of winning the Senate, and they expect Democrats to take the Texas Senate seat while Republicans hold South Carolina. In the House they see a median outcome of about 233 Democratic seats, a gain of roughly 20, and they also expect Democrats to win the presidency in 2028. **Claimed:** Oct 20, 2026 **Pundit:** Logan Phillips — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/logan-phillips **Outlet:** Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/e7fd5ae7-7621-4e41-9b85-b0ab0164b634/16e06494-b115-456a-bcf2-b4e90102ae16/audio.mp3?in_playlist=4c1a5135-4197-47c9-b19b-b0ab0164b667 6 checkable claims — 3 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. 3 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I think they're going to win Texas. And I think Kansas is a toss up. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - “I just don't know if it's different enough for Democrats to win. I think they're going to win Texas.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “they might be able to be safe in places like South Carolina, for example, which I think they're going to win, but is in play” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “Democrats would have about a 30% chance instead of about a 70% chance in the Senate.” - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - “to me the median scenario is like Democrats 233 in the house” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - “I think in 2028, Democrats will more likely than not win the White House.” - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - “It's not that much because Democrats barely lost the house last two cycles and so it'd be like a gain of like 20 seats.” - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 0) - Carl Cannon: Cannon picked Democrats to win Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Texas, Iowa and Kansas while Republicans hold South Carolina and Nebraska, took Michelle Tafoya as an upset special in Minnesota, and said Democrats would gain more than 30 House seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/635f269d-3c71-4998-9a1f-24cab744db76 (scored 100) - Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 0) - Spencer Kimball: Kimball said Susan Collins would hold their Maine Senate seat despite most polls showing them behind, and projected Democrats winning the House with roughly 235-240 seats, a gain of more than 20; they called the Senate a toss-up and made no call there. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/23d6b8f8-ab6a-4dab-bdcb-5b515223983c (scored 0) - Buck Sexton: Buck Sexton said Florida's "red wall" would hold, expressing confidence that Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody would win their statewide races there, and they called Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee governor bid essentially locked up. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/07a8919e-a9b3-4d37-b164-a40a2a42c548 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=logan-phillips