# Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's House model now makes Democrats 67% favorites to win the House majority, with ratings at 216 Democrats, 209 Republicans and 10 tossups and a median simulation of 221 Democrats to 214 Republicans. The update shifts 13 ratings toward Democrats, including Peltola in Alaska and McDonald Rivet in MI-08 moving to Leans Democratic, while several Republican-held seats move onto the board as Likely or Lean Republican. **Claimed:** Sep 7, 2024 **Pundit:** Lakshya Jain — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/lakshya-jain **Outlet:** Split Ticket — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/split-ticket **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://split-ticket.org/2024/09/07/temperature-check-democratic-house-outlook-improves/ 18 checkable claims — 13 race winners, 4 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. All 18 have settled, averaging 82.2 out of 100, against 92.2 for a naive guess at the same calls. > Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority , which is the highest it has been since its inception. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Our current House ratings stand at 216 Democrats, 209 Republicans, and 10 tossups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 95 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **While GOP incumbents David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani are still favorites to win according to the model, their Democratic challengers Amish Shah and Kirsten Engel now have greater probabilities of victory.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **going from Likely Republican to Lean Republican: ... VA-02 (held by Jen Kiggans)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Two seats are leaving the tossup category and moving to Leans Democratic: AK-AL and MI-08. In Alaska, Mary Peltola remains favored to secure a second full term in the House in a rematch against Republican Nick Begich.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **One seat is moving to Safe Democratic: NV-01. Democrat Dina Titus is not at serious risk of losing reelection** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **While GOP incumbents David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani are still favorites to win according to the model, their Democratic challengers Amish Shah and Kirsten Engel now have greater probabilities of victory.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Three other seats enter the realm of true competitiveness, going from Likely Republican to Lean Republican: FL-13 (held by Anna Paulina Luna)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Our current House ratings stand at 216 Democrats, 209 Republicans, and 10 tossups.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 45 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **moved onto the board as Likely Republican ... NY-02, held by Andrew Garbarino** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Our model now gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning the majority , which is the highest it has been since its inception. ... the Democrats are now modest, but clear favorites to flip the House in November.** - Kind: Control of Congress - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **VA-05, an open seat likely to be won by Republican Delegate John McGuire** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **our model's median simulation places the chamber at 221 Democrats and 214 Republicans** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 70 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **Two districts are moving from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic: CA-47 and NH-01. ... As for NH-01, Democratic incumbent Chris Pappas continues to be the heavy favorite** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **In MI-08, a marginal Biden-won seat being vacated by Dan Kildee, the Democrats are now clearer favorites to win. Kristen McDonald Rivet is facing Paul Junge** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **Two districts are moving from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic: CA-47 and NH-01. ... In CA-47, Democrat Dave Min remains a favorite against Republican Scott Baugh** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **our model's median simulation places the chamber at 221 Democrats and 214 Republicans** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: scored 70 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess - **a few seats previously rated as Safe Republican have also now moved onto the board as Likely Republican ... IA-02, held by Rep. Ashley Hinson** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **going from Likely Republican to Lean Republican: ... TX-15th (held by Monica de la Cruz)** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100) - Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100) - Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0) - Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0) - Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=lakshya-jain