# Gregg Rosenthal: Rosenthal predicted Armand Membu could go to the Jets at No. 7, expects Josh Simmons to be picked in the first round despite injury and character concerns, and floated Donovan Jackson going to a team like the Patriots at the top of the second round. On win totals they leaned over on the Jets, Buccaneers, Lions and Chiefs. **Claimed:** Apr 9, 2025 **Pundit:** Gregg Rosenthal — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/gregg-rosenthal **Outlet:** Around the NFL (podcast) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/around-the-nfl-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview **Original:** https://omny.fm/shows/nfl-daily/early-win-totals-takeaways-and-ol-draft-preview 7 checkable claims — 4 season win totals and 3 mock draft picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call. It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record. All 7 have settled, averaging 38.2 out of 100, against 35.7 for a naive guess at the same calls. > I really think he could go to the Jets at seven because they really need to know his bookends. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 12 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Kansas City Chiefs - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 10 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess - **New York Jets to finish with 6 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: New York Jets - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Detroit Lions to finish with 11 wins** - Kind: Season Win Totals · About: Detroit Lions - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess - **Donovan Jackson to be picked “top of the second round” (picks 33–64)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Donovan Jackson, New England Patriots - Verdict: scored 67.71 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Armand Membou to be picked at number 7** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Armand Membou, New York Jets - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess - **Josh Simmons to be picked “probably in the first round” (picks 1–32)** - Kind: Mock Draft Picks · About: Josh Simmons - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess ## Who this take is about - Kansas City Chiefs — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/chiefs - Tampa Bay Buccaneers — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/buccaneers - New York Jets — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/jets - Detroit Lions — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/lions - Donovan Jackson — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/donovan-jackson - New England Patriots — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/teams/patriots - Armand Membou — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/armand-membou - Josh Simmons — https://missedtakes.co/nfl/players/josh-simmons ## What others said about the same people - Chris Clark on Nikko Remigio: Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/99521265-d5c0-4db1-b2a0-fe77908ea0b3 (scored 0) - Gilberto Manzano on Josh Downs: Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/67d5af78-94ea-4ee2-a277-5e68347022de (scored 100) - Joshua Poniatowski on Josh Downs: Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/d1752582-a799-48b9-984b-39bf7cb8b709 (scored 100) - Andrew Erickson on Josh Downs: Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/e97e28f2-31fc-4702-915c-63c38477e97d (scored 100) - Jordan Dajani on Josh Downs: After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f5af1657-8608-4071-a63e-0e7d6124e627 (scored 100) - Mike Kadlick on Josh Downs: Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/45c94482-ef71-413f-834b-2a246271691d (scored 100) ## More season win totals The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Nick Wright on Chicago Bears: Nick Wright lays out their season win-total picks (overs on Jaguars, Bears, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Raiders, Falcons; unders on Bengals, Colts, Broncos, Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers), playoff berth and miss calls, three division winners, a Chiefs-over-Buccaneers Super Bowl exacta, and five Week 1 picks. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5049c576-4d69-4d73-a0ba-6296e5e50ff2 (scored 100) - Damonza Byrd on Jacksonville Jaguars: Nick Wright's co-host picks the Jaguars over as their favorite of the six over bets and calls the Baltimore/Buffalo division-winner parlay a safe one. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5eaf9823-e809-4008-855a-c72518f10f08 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on Baltimore Ravens: Nick Wright predicts Shedeur Sanders stays behind Dylan Gabriel on the Browns depth chart, forecasts a season where Flacco is benched a third of the way in, Gabriel then fails, Shedeur then fails, and Cleveland drafts a quarterback next year. They also make a long list of win-total, playoff and division calls across the AFC North and beyond. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/4e17eca2-e154-41f3-b116-389f8335f9c8 (scored 0) - Nick Wright on Jacksonville Jaguars: In part two of their gambling show, Nick Wright ran through NFC (and recapped AFC) win-total picks, division winners and make/miss-the-playoffs bets, backing the Chiefs, Jaguars, Raiders, Bears, Buccaneers and Falcons to clear their totals while predicting Commanders, Bucs and Rams division titles. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/252a575e-6524-48d2-86c4-356e2509e8f5 (scored 100) - Nick Wright on San Francisco 49ers: Wright's under picks: Broncos under 9.5, 49ers under 10.5, Cowboys under 8, Bengals under 9.5 with Cincinnati missing the playoffs and Zac Taylor fired. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c3f0c208-282f-4dfc-8ca1-5c966eee0be2 (scored 0) - Danny Parkins on Pittsburgh Steelers: Filling in for Colin Cowherd, Parkins gave over/under picks for all 32 NFL teams for the 2025 season, plus specific win-total projections for several clubs. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8fb10c9f-9ceb-4be5-a8eb-c15baf405f23 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=gregg-rosenthal