# Saagar Enjeti: He agreed that Vance will win the Ohio Senate race, citing how badly 2020 polls underestimated Trump there, and in Michigan's governor race he said that given the polling misses and the political environment he would rather be Tudor Dixon than Gretchen Whitmer.

**Claimed:** Oct 25, 2022
**Pundit:** Saagar Enjeti — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/saagar-enjeti
**Outlet:** Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/breaking-points-with-krystal-and-saagar
**How it reached us:** said on air or in an interview
**Original:** https://podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/e73c998e-6e60-432f-8610-ae210140c5b1/e7fd5ae7-7621-4e41-9b85-b0ab0164b634/61244626-8c4b-4b1f-af5c-b0ac0003856e/audio.mp3?in_playlist=4c1a5135-4197-47c9-b19b-b0ab0164b667

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I completely agree. And look at Jade Vance. If they say it's tied. Trump was effectively tied with Joe Biden on the eve of the twenty twenty election. He won the state by eight points.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **So if you factor in that level of a miss, I would much rather be Tutor Dixon in a poll like this... toss up in an unfavorable environment, with the fundamentals where they are, I think i'd probably be the Republican candidate.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **I completely agree. And look at Jade Vance. If they say it's tied. Trump was effectively tied with Joe Biden on the eve of the twenty twenty election. He won the state by eight points.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Jim Geraghty: Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/dabb97cc-0add-4f98-8cc7-65db2bacb4e2 (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1ae01889-13b0-43e6-bcbd-c98a82a5aa04 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3baef536-0bff-435d-8c59-9af2c6b32384 (scored 100)
- Dennis Prager: Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/6edcea42-561f-4932-9aa1-761bb11f097e (scored 0)
- Megyn Kelly: Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/94649f86-1d80-4f9c-9505-04d0e4337f71 (scored 0)
- Matt Continetti: Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3c895a63-b14d-4946-9ead-fdf2d6e76521 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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