# Maddisen Murrell: Presenting DDHQ's model, Morell said Democrats have a 76% chance of winning the House and a 57-58% chance of winning the Senate, with the forecast having shifted toward Democrats in recent weeks.

**Claimed:** Oct 8, 2026
**Pundit:** Maddisen Murrell — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/maddisen-murrell
**Outlet:** Decision Desk HQ Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/decision-desk-hq-podcast
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/219311393/cbb6a40f359183e2ed0b96f0532b9c63.mp3

2 checkable claims — 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> Democrats are at 76% chance of winning, the house. They are at a 58% chance of winning the senate.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- “we estimate currently that the odds for Democrats taking these, house is at 76%”
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- “For the senate, we are... Have increasingly lean Democrat... And we're now at 57%... They are at a 58% chance of winning the senate.”
  - Kind: Control of Congress
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess

## More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: On Election Day, Erickson forecasts that Republicans will lose their House majority while holding the Senate, and picks Rick Jackson to beat Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia's governor race. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/8ed3ad25-c945-43a6-8198-74886bbd2522 (scored 100)
- Tom Bevan: Bevan picked Democrats to win Michigan, Alaska, Texas, Kansas and North Carolina while Republicans hold Ohio, South Carolina, Nebraska, Iowa and Maine, giving Democrats a net gain of four and a 51-49 Senate majority, plus a House gain of about 26 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b5c1c97f-66d7-4b7d-b6d5-085f46495a06 (scored 100)
- Andrew Walworth: Walworth was the most bullish on Republicans, picking Mike Rogers in Michigan and GOP holds in Alaska, South Carolina, Maine, Nebraska and Iowa while giving Democrats Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Minnesota, leaving a 50-50 Senate with Republicans in control. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1691eed0-1c56-418d-be99-1b448f0d3679 (scored 0)
- Isaac Saul: Saul says Democrats have the House sewn up heading into election night, and that Democrats have good odds of winning the Senate races in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/f27d4f5b-e1cc-44b3-8f0b-b9fbd7c422cb (scored 100)
- Isaac Saul: Saul asserts that Democrats have the House sewn up, and says Democrats appear to be running away with the statewide races in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire while having good odds in Maine and Michigan. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/3424d5ea-fb93-4738-8b03-bd5dd4f4d5b7 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson expects a bad night for Republicans: they lose the Senate seats in North Carolina and Texas but hold the rest of the contested seats — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina and Ohio — and keep Senate control, possibly even flipping Michigan. They believe the House is lost, with the GOP shedding roughly 25 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/351bb670-9f0b-453f-b74c-f93b044bd257 (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us:
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