# Daniel Horowitz: Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio.

**Claimed:** Nov 1, 2024
**Pundit:** Daniel Horowitz — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/daniel-horowitz
**Outlet:** Steve Deace Show — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/steve-deace-show
**How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us
**Original:** https://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/pdst.fm/e/pfx.vpixl.com/4V6da/arttrk.com/p/BLZM1/verifi.podscribe.com/rss/p/mgln.ai/e/285/pscrb.fm/rss/p/prfx.byspotify.com/e/claritaspod.com/measure/traffic.megaphone.fm/BMDC5785241096.mp3?updated=1730488448

7 checkable claims — 4 race winners, 1 chamber control, 1 race margin and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

4 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 73.8 out of 100, against 47.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

> I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans.

*(their words, quoted for attribution)*

## The claims

- **I would just say Ohio. Ohio's momentum towards being red appears to have stalled out for me from what I'm seeing. There's some Democrat net in migration there, but I could be wrong. That would be the fifty second seat if I'm wrong.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans.**
  - Kind: Seat Counts
  - Verdict: scored 95 out of 100, against 90 for a naive guess
- **I got to two nineteen two sixteen Republicans... It would put them at two nineteen, but it could easily go either way.**
  - Kind: Chamber Control
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess
- **And then my senate map pretty much just reflects that he'll... He'll get... We'll get Montana.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess
- **I'm pretty sure Nevada, although I could see him losing Nevada despite the good good early voting**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: too vague to check
- **a lot of our colleagues think he's gonna win Georgia by five points. I think it's gonna be more like one one and a half... I think he's favored**
  - Kind: Race Margins
  - Verdict: not settled yet
- **it benefits him in the Sun Belt. So I'm very bullish in Arizona.**
  - Kind: Race Winners
  - Verdict: too vague to check

## More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/82214c34-9df6-44e2-8d0a-db8ea7c307f3 (scored 100)
- Erick-Woods Erickson: Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/1dff06ac-6afd-4cba-8d04-66989cafbd39 (scored 100)
- Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100)
- Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0)
- Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0)
- Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100)

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Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages.

Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology

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