# Sean Trende: RCP's elections analyst said the economy is the main reason Republicans are likely to lose the House, affirmed RCP's House projection of 226 Democratic and 185 Republican seats with 24 toss-ups, rated Max Miller's Ohio 7th seat as a leaning Democratic pickup, and said a Republican Senate total anywhere from 48 to 51 seats would not surprise him. **Claimed:** Oct 2, 2026 **Pundit:** Sean Trende — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/sean-trende **Outlet:** RealClearPolitics Podcast — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/realclearpolitics-podcast **How it reached us:** said on air, transcribed by us **Original:** https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/pdcn.co/e/afp-295344-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0/episodes/2f22cab7-8bd5-42d5-aa32-fe315c8537b2/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=de28783a-a808-4145-ac73-dfbf948fb0d0&awEpisodeId=2f22cab7-8bd5-42d5-aa32-fe315c8537b2&feed=pzzjlbXr 5 checkable claims — 3 seat counts, 1 chamber control and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > It's it's probably the number one reason that they're likely to lose the house. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **So anything between, like, Republicans getting 48 seats and 51 seats, I think, wouldn't be terribly surprising.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **And then there's the incumbents you don't really wanna be having to defend like Max Miller in Ohio seven, which we actually have is leaning pickup right now.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **So it's it's a real problem for Republicans, in this midterm election. It's it's probably the number one reason that they're likely to lose the house.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: not settled yet - **We've got 226 Democrats, 185 Republican seats, 24 toss-up... Yeah. I think, I think these are on the more aggressive side. But, again, when we look at at what we see in the polling right now, it's warranted.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet - **We've got 226 Democrats, 185 Republican seats, 24 toss-up, two eighteen is what's needed for the majority... I think these are on the more aggressive side. But... it's warranted.** - Kind: Seat Counts - Verdict: not settled yet ## More seat counts The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Sam Wang: Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b4bf6d49-8e25-46a3-92f0-ea5d697121ef (scored 55) - Erick-Woods Erickson: He predicted Republicans would gain at least two Senate seats and take control of the chamber, and that the GOP would hold the House with its majority growing to roughly 225 or 230 seats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/908b2e75-8d71-4514-8d1d-948e8b3190a3 (scored 75) - Lakshya Jain: Split Ticket's final 2024 forecast calls the presidency a tossup with Harris the narrowest favorite at 53% and exactly 270 electoral votes, carried by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; it gives Republicans a 73% chance of taking the Senate at 52-48 while Democrats have a 53% chance of a 219-216 House majority, and it rates dozens of individual Senate, House and governor races. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5a57d1ed-c7db-49ba-b385-900b5d93d6c5 (scored 80) - Daniel Horowitz: Horowitz said his House map came out at 219-216 for Republicans, with the GOP losing nine seats and flipping six. On the presidential side he was bullish on Trump in Arizona and Nevada and expected a narrow Trump win in Georgia of about a point and a half; on the Senate he had Republicans taking Montana but not Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/c587c5d9-5cd7-4f69-b12f-f9a0c678a913 (scored 95) - Steve Deace: Deace laid out a final presidential map of 297-241 for Trump, with the Rust Belt splitting: Pennsylvania going Republican while Michigan stays Democratic, plus Trump wins in Arizona and Nevada. On the Senate he predicted Republicans finish with 54 seats, including McCormick winning Pennsylvania and Moreno unseating Sherrod Brown in Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/227fccef-c6ae-4b9b-a30d-4eb9c2431b39 (scored 80) - Isaac Saul: Recapping and restating his final 2024 call, Saul predicts Trump wins the presidency while Harris carries Pennsylvania, with Democrats taking the House and Republicans ending up with 53 Senate seats. He insists the race is a coin flip but still lands on Trump. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/fae76e06-7347-4e3d-b978-448ce89230c0 (scored 100) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=sean-trende