# Erick-Woods Erickson: Erickson predicts Democrats will win control of the House while Republicans hold the Senate with a reduced majority, losing the North Carolina and Ohio Senate seats, picking up Michigan, and keeping Texas. **Claimed:** Sep 30, 2026 **Pundit:** Erick-Woods Erickson — https://missedtakes.co/pundits/erick-woods-erickson **Outlet:** Erick Erickson newsletter (Substack) — https://missedtakes.co/outlets/erick-erickson-newsletter-substack **How it reached us:** published in writing **Original:** https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/the-senate-and-the-white-right 6 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 2 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet. None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in. > But I do think enough of them will still come home to the GOP that the Senate stays in Republican hands. *(their words, quoted for attribution)* ## The claims - **Right now, I think the GOP is going to lose both North Carolina and Ohio** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **I think the GOP keeps Texas.** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **But I do think enough of them will still come home to the GOP that the Senate stays in Republican hands.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: not settled yet - **Right now, I think the GOP is going to lose both North Carolina and Ohio** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet - **The United States House of Representatives is gone for the GOP... The House is going to flip and could just as easily flip back in two years.** - Kind: Chamber Control - Verdict: not settled yet - **but I think they'll pick up Michigan** - Kind: Race Winners - Verdict: not settled yet ## More race winners The same kind of call, about other players and teams. - Carl Cannon: Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/b2689d3e-dc9d-495f-bcc8-52599bb46dac (scored 100) - Lanny Davis: Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/97e9f11b-43c2-490c-9869-1f6e5bb956dc (scored 0) - Sam Wang: Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/cf6c147d-478d-438a-848d-55fd3ac9c8d0 (scored 0) - Steve Deace: On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/7b7565db-4811-4dd0-8830-872386b9e74f (scored 100) - Henry Olsen: Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/95ac712b-4c9a-4c59-ad58-88552ecace4c (scored 100) - Tim Miller: Miller predicted Kamala Harris would hold the blue wall states and Nevada and win a narrow Electoral College victory with 276 electoral votes, while also saying Florida and Texas would stay out of reach for Democrats. — https://missedtakes.co/opinions/5506a84f-61ca-4667-8670-a8fb3229ae2d (scored 0) --- Accuracy is 0-100 against what actually happened. The naive guess is what a strategy requiring no knowledge would have scored on the same call — the difference is the skill, and it is what the MissedTakes Score averages. Full method: https://missedtakes.co/methodology We summarize what a pundit said and quote a short span for attribution; we never republish their article. If this is wrong, tell us: https://missedtakes.co/corrections?pundit=erick-woods-erickson